I would further caution folks from looking at the 30% AHI reduction Dronabinol achieves as some sort of benchmark.
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The crucial target for this drug is, by combining Dronabinol with acetazolamide, to achieve AHI reduction while bringing Dronabinol impairment within acceptable parameters (as
@thevinnys has reminded us).
Synergetic action between the two active ingredients doesn't have to result in reduction in excess of 30%, for this to be a success.
It needs to provide clinically significant reduction in OSA AHI, while presenting an impairment profile deemed to be as commercially advantageous as possible. As
@thevinnys reminded us, clinically significant translates to 10-15%. Even if the 5mg dose only achieves this, but makes it so that people can take their pill, go to sleep, and drive with little to no impairment the next morning, IHL-42x will be on track to represent a tremendously valuable asset for the company. In my opinion, the opportunity would outclass what Epidiolex did for GW Pharma.
Beyond a reduction of 10% or more, the better the reduction, the deeper the market penetration, as
@andres described. But we must remember that even at 10% reduction, the addressable market will be huge. The 50% of cpap rejectors will be squarely in the market. CPAP users will still have some motivation to further improve their OSA, and perhaps gain some lee-way to not use the CPAP now and then. One subsection will have been just on the cusp of needing the CPAP, and 10% reduction could see them abandon it entirely in favour of IHL-42x. Any greater reduction beyond 10% simply broadens the range of potential patients, but crucially, it broadens it from a very large initial market to an even larger one.
In essence, if IHL-42x makes it to commercialisation, a difference between 10% and 20% in AHI reduction might (very approximately) mean the difference between a $7B valuation, and an 8 or 9 or $10B valuation. Not exactly negligible difference, but both would fall squarely in the realm of great success.
As long as we are first to market with the only approved pharmaceutical therapy for OSA, Incannex's SP should achieve 10-20 times its current position in due course.
Good luck all. I can't believe results will be in by this time tomorrow.
