It's a good sight when report coming out in the morning before market opens rather than sneak in after closing.
Last half was very ordinary, multiple production delays and missed shipment.
The new half looks great. At run rate of 1mtpa we are guaranteed to make at least US$200 per tonne by my most conservative estimate an annual profit of US$200 million.
Below are my estimate of cost of production.
New Elk existing contract 70kt X 3 to Asia was sold at US$117 per tonne. that is roughly US$24.57m. This coal was sold at a margin above FOB cost so we can deduce the cost of production is between US$101 to US$97.5 at 15% and 20% margin respectively. Investor pack 20.01.2021 indicated FOB cost at US$88 per tonne. As off Dec 2021 the average sale price we could expect is US$302 from company's own announcement. Today's price is over US$500 per tonne...
Black warrior was supplying its High-Vol A coking coal as your run of the mill thermal coal supplying to local co op for power generation. Since its sold US$77 per tonne before AHQ then I assume the cost would be around US$67 to US$64 using the same methodology above.
Black warrior been the premium grade command a price of US$656.07 per tonne.
![https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4162/4162846-7c80c575e6c3ac078be6582d352163c1.jpg](https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4162/4162846-7c80c575e6c3ac078be6582d352163c1.jpg)
![https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4162/4162896-35561b8b8f5f09563c4f94891378ad94.jpg](https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4162/4162896-35561b8b8f5f09563c4f94891378ad94.jpg)