Tick. But startoff at your Scenario 3 .... 1) The avge sale price will be nowhere near spot due to multiple reasons. WHC earned AUD200 average SP over the past quarter. NHC, in the past has been similar to WHC and should be similar again with the past 2 months being added upside. 2) Timing of sales are critical. Each shipload has about $40m in revenue loaded. Watch differences between coal mined & coal sold. 3) Costs are $700k pa, not $500k pa for the NSW company tonnage. See WHC last quarter for description of cost increases. NHC should be similar. 4) Work your EPS on a figure including the CVN's. I use 1billion shares. The CVN's participate via a lower capital cost on redemption.
My numbers are NPAT of $602m with additional upside of $100m dependent on capturing the higher spot.
Lower sale price figures for 2024 - 2038 with demand slowly reducing & world supply remaining consistent.
DCF Valuation of $3.99.
Note : Macquarie recent valuation of $5.00 must assume higher sale prices for longer / Recommencement of Ackland / Buyout remaining 20% of Bengalla / Other Acquisition / etc
NHC Price at posting:
$2.83 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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