I do have some (perhaps naïve) assumptions built in to my guesses:
1.) The Singapore businesses' (HHC and ICS) performance in the 2nd half of 2021 was the reason for the terrible result in 2021. However to me the excuse of the Singaporean government's help does some reasonable. The help has continued but isn't as much as it was before, and I believe that is reflected in the revenue for the 1st half of 22. If we get the same performance in the 2nd half of 2022 from the Singaporean businesses then I believe the share price will turn around, because YoY will 'look great'. At this point you can argue that the core of the business is growing. The performance that worries me the most is actually 2019, where they ballooned the expenses way quicker than the revenue.
2.) My dilution assumption is perhaps low, however the dilution has been primarily made for acquisitions. If they make more acquisitions, it's not like there isn't something given in return (increase in revenue, book value etc). If it's performance based shares, then you would have to assume that the company is actually doing well, otherwise they won't hit the targets. Granted my assumptions for dilution should probably have increased as my growth rate increased. I will probably revise this.
3.) I did add Jimmie's compensation into account in the expenses increase, which you can see makes my estimated profit lower in 2023 than in 2022 for scenarios Ugly-Good (because he only is getting half a year's compo this year in comparison to next).
4.) If we go with the extracting funds theory, which I am definitely not going to dismiss, I think they actually have to let the company flourish a bit. In my estimations, Jimmie's compensation actually hurts his net worth in the short term because the weight it's dragged on the profit margin has destroyed the share price more than compensation he gets. Over time as revenues increase, this amount won't be as big of a factor. I think if they do want to extract the most funds, they have to wait until the fundamentals get better before they pillage again. Perhaps I should revise this in later years of my model, especially if it does well.
I don't believe that I should invest a large percentage of my wealth in this company, but I do this that this is one of those Benjamin Graham/Guy Spier style 'cigarette butt' companies, where if you invest in enough of them, the value of the 2.4/10 that succeed outweigh the 7.6/10 that fail.
(20min delay)