I’ve had a good look at Panoramic Resources (PAN) and the restart of its Savanah nickel mine and concluded that PAN/Savanah is a good go-by for MYL/Avebury. Type of mine, processing, ore throughput, Ni production and distance to shipping port are all similar with perhaps the most significant difference being Savanah’s co-production of Cu.
It seems to me that MYL’s market cap once relisted, and on its way to Avebury production, may well echo PAN’s share price/market cap performance since it raised funds to restart Savanah. The performance is shown in the figure below.
PAN’s shares on issue did not change over the time shown and so MC and share price can be read from the same graph – MC in $Million on the LH vertical axis. I’ve added major Savanah milestones.
I’ve shown the LME Nickel price above the PAN graph.
As you would expect, you can see that PAN’s market cap was influenced by the Ni price and the attainment of Savanah restart milestones. The same will occur with MYL.
Based on MYL 11.3.22, I calculate 314 million fully diluted MYL shares on relisting (compares well with Kalenn’s 320M), and hence MC’s of $132M and $198M respectively for the two price points (42c and 63c) that potentially trigger share issue/payment conditions. Providing the Ni price stays above say US$20,000/t, and MYL demonstrate a decent technically competent and profitable plan, I’d say we’ll be above these levels within the first month and go on to similar MC levels as PAN did as Avebury restart milestones are achieved, but in a much quicker timeframe than PAN achieved.
