The near term potential of the go to market dermatology model could be a substantial contributor to 2HFY22 and FY23.
Slides 16 and 17 from the HY presentation are intriguing and I make the following observations
The Absorica (Isotretinoin) market which was worth US$ 140m at launch is now approximately US$225m or A$300m. Mayne Pharma has captured 39% of the expanded market in a short period of 6 months and if this market share is maintained that is additional revenue of A$110m/ annum from Absorica alone. Sure we do not know what profit sharing arrangements were struck with Upsher Smith so the contribution is unknown.
Second observation is that prior to the launch of generics in this market Sunpharma had the total market with its branded product and possibly its generic. The first other generic launch was Teva 5 months before Maynes launch and they have only captured 7% of the market.
3rd observation. At the same time as Maynes launch, Upsher Smith launched its generic in the retail market and they have gained 9% of the market. Bear in mind that this is exactly the same generic that Mayne is marketing under its own label in the non retail channels. So this gives great insight into the potential of Maynes go to market model rather than retail.
4th observation. Mayne has already launched an additional US$480m (A$650m) of products in the same non retail channels, if this early success with Absorica is only half as successful, this could potentially add an additional A$130m per annum.
I think we will have to wait for the full year results to figure all this out but I remain optimistic about the potential for this company.
(20min delay)