retail sales up significantly in united states

A few articles of encouraging reading.



Consumer confidence boosts US retail sales
Saturday December 12, 2009, 8:45 am

Retail sales in the United States have risen for the second straight month, boosting hopes that a major component of US economic activity is rebounding.

Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the American economy and is a key to US economic growth.

The US Commerce Department says retail sales rose 1.3 per cent last month, more than double the 0.6 per cent increase analysts had expected.

Some special factors pushed up sales, including a 6.0 per cent rise in gasoline sales, a figure affected by higher prices. But electronics sales rose 2.8 per cent and auto sector sales 1.6 per cent.

General merchandise sales gained 0.8 per cent and building materials increased 1.5 per cent, but home furnishings and apparel sales fell 0.7 per cent.

Food and beverage sales were up 1.0 per cent.

A separate consumer sentiment report also shows an increase in consumer confidence.

In another positive sign, the commerce department reported an increase in the amount of stock being held by businesses, another signal of confidence that consumers are going to step up their purchases.

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Retail sales sparkle in November Signals economy on firmer footing

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Consumer spending was solid in November, suggesting that the economy is on sounder footing than previously thought.

U.S. retail sales jumped an encouraging 1.3% in November, according to Commerce Department data released Friday. This was more than double the consensus forecast.

Shortly after the report, the University of Michigan and Reuters reported that their index of consumer sentiment had soared in early December to the highest reading since September,

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After the reports were released, economists rushed to upgrade their forecasts for growth in the final three months of the year.

Goldman Sachs pushed their fourth quarter GDP forecast above 3%.

Markets reacted swiftly to the news of a stronger economic outlook.

Stocks /quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed (INDU 10,471, +65.52, +0.63%) jumped in the wake of the data. The dollar /quotes/comstock/11j!i:dxy0 (DXY 76.57, +0.53, +0.69%) hit a two-month high. Get complete details of forex market moves. Treasury prices dropped, pushing 10-year yields up to the highest since August. See complete Treasury market coverage

The increase in retail sales did not seem to be a fluke. Core sales - excluding autos, gasoline and building materials, rose a solid 0.5%.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected total sales to rise 0.5% and sales excluding autos to rise 0.4%. Read forecasts for other top economic indicators.

"This was a surprisingly strong report, and suggests that U.S. consumers are slowly regaining their spending mojo," said Millan Mulraine, an economics strategist at TD Securities, in a note to clients.

It was the strongest sales report since August's 2.4% increase. The gains were widespread, as only clothing and furniture sales dropped in the month. The figures are seasonally adjusted but are not adjusted for inflation.

It is hard to say what the November sales data imply for the critical holiday shopping season. Retailers are hoping to avoid a second consecutive year of sales declines, but many reports are pointing to a lackluster season.

In the past year, retail sales are up 1.9%, the first year-over-year gain since August 2008.

The strong report adds to the perception that the U.S. economy is exiting the recession in good shape. Economists caution that the economy still faces significant headwinds from the credit crunch and high unemployment rate.

Some economists want to see the December retail sales report before getting too excited about November's strength.

Auto sales jumped 1.6%, a sign that consumers are continuing to buy cars despite the end of the government's cash-for-clunkers program.

Excluding the 1.6% rise in auto sales, sales rose 1.2%, the fastest since January.

Gasoline sales added some fuel to November sales, rising 6.0%, the biggest gain since June.

Excluding gasoline stations, sales rose 0.8%. Excluding both autos and gas, sales rose 0.6%.

Sales at electronics stores rose 2.8%, the biggest increase since January. Sales at building-materials stores increased 1.5%, the largest rise since April 2008.

Sales of essentials were brisk, in part because of higher food and gas prices. Gas-station sales rose 6.0%. Food and beverage store sales rose 1.0%, the biggest gain since January. Sales at restaurants and bars increased 0.5%, the biggest gain since February.

Sales at drug stores and personal-care stores rose 0.3%.

Sales at nonstore retailers, such as catalogs and online stores, increased 1.2%, possibly in response to higher gas prices.

Sales at general merchandise stores rose 0.8%.

Sales at sporting-goods, book and hobby stores rose 0.3%.

Furniture-store sales dropped 0.7%, while sales at clothing stores fell 0.7%, the largest decline since June. Miscellaneous store sales dropped 1.8%.


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JAVIER C. HERNANDEZ

Published: December 11, 2009

A strong start to the holiday shopping season pushed retail sales higher in November, the government reported on Friday, propelling stock prices near their recent highs.


The New York Times

Hopes that consumers may be opening their wallets ever so slightly even in this grim job market were also bolstered by a separate report that showed consumer confidence improving.

In retailers as diverse as health stores and electronics boutiques, sales rose 1.3 percent last month from October, nearly twice the gain economists had expected. Excluding cars and gasoline sales, which can be volatile, the jump was 0.6 percent, three times as much as economists had predicted.

The rosy numbers brought the Dow Jones industrial average up to within a point of its highest level in more than a year, as investors grew more confident that companies would be reaping better-than-expected profits this holiday season. Other stock indexes were mixed, with Standard & Poor’s 500 rising about 0.4 percent and the Nasdaq composite closing slightly lower.

Trading remained light, however, and concerns continued that an economic recovery might cause the Federal Reserve to move toward higher interest rates sooner than predicted.

The Commerce Department’s report on sales brought relief to business owners, who had feared consumers would rein in spending this year as the unemployment rate crept above 10 percent and the recovery showed signs of weakness. The data reinforced the expectation of modest growth in consumer spending over the next several months, economists said, though retail sales alone would probably not increase fast enough to lift the economy out of its downturn.

A gauge of consumer confidence added to hopes of a revival in spending. The University of Michigan’s index registered its first increase in three months and outpaced expectations.

The consumer sentiment index reached 73.4 in early December, an increase of 6 points, as Americans appeared reassured by the slowing pace of job losses and encouraged by deep discounts from retailers.

“The momentum here is positive,” said James F. O’Sullivan, chief economist for MF Global. “We’re seeing that better spending leads to a better job market which leads to better spending, in stark contrast to the downward spiral we were seeing a year ago.”

In 2008, the picture of consumer spending was far dimmer: sales took a steep plunge toward the end of the year, dipping below $340 billion a month, as the financial crisis reached its peak. While sales reached $352.1 billion last month, that remained well below the $380 billion monthly sales figures of 2007.

Spending by consumers makes up more than two-thirds of the economy, and some analysts say a true recovery will not come until Americans start buying in large amounts again. That may be difficult in a country where at least 15.4 million people remain unemployed, many of them for more than six months, and as many families struggle with meager paychecks and reduced hours.

“The difficulties in the labor market, the desire to reduce and the tightening of lending standards of all kinds should serve to cap the pace at which spending will rebound in 2010,” Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for Miller Tabak, wrote in a research note Friday.

The retail sales figure reflected a 1.9 percent increase from November 2008, when the chill in consumer spending had begun to take hold — the first year-over-year increase since August 2008.

Sales of cars and gasoline led the strong gains over all, though sales were up for goods of many types, including food, electronics, garden supplies and sporting goods. Cars and car parts rose 1.6 percent, even in the absence of government-financed incentives like the cash-for-clunkers program, and gasoline sales increased 6 percent, pushed up by rising prices. Mail and Internet orders rose 1.2 percent, while clothing sales fell 0.7 percent.

Holiday sales are still expected to come in well below the highs of two and three years ago, and some major chains actually reported sales were weaker than expected in November. Economists explained the discrepancy by noting the government’s report measures a wider slice of the economy, including grocery stores and discounters like Wal-Mart.

The Commerce Department also revised downward its October results, saying sales increased by 1.1 percent rather than the 1.4 percent originally reported. The government adjusts its sales numbers to discount the boom from holiday shopping.

There were also indications of economic renewal on the business side. A government report showed that businesses increased their inventories in October, after more than a year of cutting back. The gain was a modest 0.2 percent, but analysts had said they believed inventories would decline by that much. Any increase means businesses are restocking their shelves, which stimulates factory production and creates jobs.

“If firms decide to stop cutting inventories altogether, that’s going to be a huge boost to growth,” said Haseeb Ahmed, senior economist at JPMorgan Chase. “If that happens, you don’t really need anything beyond modest growth in consumer spending for a sustainable recovery.”

A report on United States imports and exports released Friday showed signs that vast stimulus efforts worldwide are causing increases in prices. The Labor Department said the price of imports rose 1.7 percent in November, the fourth consecutive month of gains, largely because of increasing fuel prices.

Still, the Federal Reserve has said that inflationary pressures remain in check and that it does not expect inflation to emerge as a threat to economic stability, even as interest rates remain close to zero.



The New York Times

Hopes that consumers may be opening their wallets ever so slightly even in this grim job market were also bolstered by a separate report that showed consumer confidence improving.

In retailers as diverse as health stores and electronics boutiques, sales rose 1.3 percent last month from October, nearly twice the gain economists had expected. Excluding cars and gasoline sales, which can be volatile, the jump was 0.6 percent, three times as much as economists had predicted.

The rosy numbers brought the Dow Jones industrial average up to within a point of its highest level in more than a year, as investors grew more confident that companies would be reaping better-than-expected profits this holiday season. Other stock indexes were mixed, with Standard & Poor’s 500 rising about 0.4 percent and the Nasdaq composite closing slightly lower.

Trading remained light, however, and concerns continued that an economic recovery might cause the Federal Reserve to move toward higher interest rates sooner than predicted.

The Commerce Department’s report on sales brought relief to business owners, who had feared consumers would rein in spending this year as the unemployment rate crept above 10 percent and the recovery showed signs of weakness. The data reinforced the expectation of modest growth in consumer spending over the next several months, economists said, though retail sales alone would probably not increase fast enough to lift the economy out of its downturn.

A gauge of consumer confidence added to hopes of a revival in spending. The University of Michigan’s index registered its first increase in three months and outpaced expectations.

The consumer sentiment index reached 73.4 in early December, an increase of 6 points, as Americans appeared reassured by the slowing pace of job losses and encouraged by deep discounts from retailers.

“The momentum here is positive,” said James F. O’Sullivan, chief economist for MF Global. “We’re seeing that better spending leads to a better job market which leads to better spending, in stark contrast to the downward spiral we were seeing a year ago.”

In 2008, the picture of consumer spending was far dimmer: sales took a steep plunge toward the end of the year, dipping below $340 billion a month, as the financial crisis reached its peak. While sales reached $352.1 billion last month, that remained well below the $380 billion monthly sales figures of 2007.

Spending by consumers makes up more than two-thirds of the economy, and some analysts say a true recovery will not come until Americans start buying in large amounts again. That may be difficult in a country where at least 15.4 million people remain unemployed, many of them for more than six months, and as many families struggle with meager paychecks and reduced hours.

“The difficulties in the labor market, the desire to reduce and the tightening of lending standards of all kinds should serve to cap the pace at which spending will rebound in 2010,” Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for Miller Tabak, wrote in a research note Friday.

The retail sales figure reflected a 1.9 percent increase from November 2008, when the chill in consumer spending had begun to take hold — the first year-over-year increase since August 2008.

Sales of cars and gasoline led the strong gains over all, though sales were up for goods of many types, including food, electronics, garden supplies and sporting goods. Cars and car parts rose 1.6 percent, even in the absence of government-financed incentives like the cash-for-clunkers program, and gasoline sales increased 6 percent, pushed up by rising prices. Mail and Internet orders rose 1.2 percent, while clothing sales fell 0.7 percent.

Holiday sales are still expected to come in well below the highs of two and three years ago, and some major chains actually reported sales were weaker than expected in November. Economists explained the discrepancy by noting the government’s report measures a wider slice of the economy, including grocery stores and discounters like Wal-Mart.

The Commerce Department also revised downward its October results, saying sales increased by 1.1 percent rather than the 1.4 percent originally reported. The government adjusts its sales numbers to discount the boom from holiday shopping.

There were also indications of economic renewal on the business side. A government report showed that businesses increased their inventories in October, after more than a year of cutting back. The gain was a modest 0.2 percent, but analysts had said they believed inventories would decline by that much. Any increase means businesses are restocking their shelves, which stimulates factory production and creates jobs.

“If firms decide to stop cutting inventories altogether, that’s going to be a huge boost to growth,” said Haseeb Ahmed, senior economist at JPMorgan Chase. “If that happens, you don’t really need anything beyond modest growth in consumer spending for a sustainable recovery.”

A report on United States imports and exports released Friday showed signs that vast stimulus efforts worldwide are causing increases in prices. The Labor Department said the price of imports rose 1.7 percent in November, the fourth consecutive month of gains, largely because of increasing fuel prices.

Still, the Federal Reserve has said that inflationary pressures remain in check and that it does not expect inflation to emerge as a threat to economic stability, even as interest rates remain close to zero.


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Consumer confidence boosts US retail sales

Saturday December 12, 2009, 8:45 am


Retail sales in the United States have risen for the second straight month, boosting hopes that a major component of US economic activity is rebounding.

Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the American economy and is a key to US economic growth.

The US Commerce Department says retail sales rose 1.3 per cent last month, more than double the 0.6 per cent increase analysts had expected.

Some special factors pushed up sales, including a 6.0 per cent rise in gasoline sales, a figure affected by higher prices. But electronics sales rose 2.8 per cent and auto sector sales 1.6 per cent.

General merchandise sales gained 0.8 per cent and building materials increased 1.5 per cent, but home furnishings and apparel sales fell 0.7 per cent.

Food and beverage sales were up 1.0 per cent.

A separate consumer sentiment report also shows an increase in consumer confidence.

In another positive sign, the commerce department reported an increase in the amount of stock being held by businesses, another signal of confidence that consumers are going to step up their purchases.