SYA 3.70% 2.8¢ sayona mining limited

General Discussion Topics, page-44145

  1. 12,830 Posts.
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    Ok....Yeah .....that was FUN.....redface.png Now back to the business at hand. Don't think I've really gone to bed either so ' bull ' with me ( not bear ) ..rolleyes.png

    Just a few observations as we wind down the trading session overseas and begin ours here today.

    Looking first at the trading on the SYAXF's , I noticed the change in the BID offer spread which was evident earlier in yesterday's session which at one point was sitting at around 9% with the best bid at 15.15 cents versus the best offer at 16.5 cents. This ' spread ' percentage then closed in the later and closing time segments of the session and continues to be reflective of the lower margin spreads of just over 2% today on more than 75% less traded volume.

    So obviously the OTC counter is taking a more ' reserved ' , more hesitant , or obviously a more wait and see type approach while a lot of other Lithium stocks continue to push further ahead ...... and of course in some cases hitting new ' Highs ' as we've seen in Australia

    Like Sigma Lithium who again is hitting a new high closing price almost daily new High where its currently up 1.67% at C$18.23 after being as high as C$18.78 or 4.7% and a current Australian Dollar equivalent MC of around $1.936 billion ..... which is still holding onto a differential in valuation for its project to Sayona's multiple projects of approximately A$446.2 million .

    If you're looking for something closer to Sayona's Quebec's North American lithium HUB's , then you can size up and compare Ontario's Frontier who is also hitting new All time high SP's with a current approximate adjusted Market Cap today of A$730.19 million . So allowing for currency movements on valuations from around the same time of the Moblan acquisition , Sayona's share price at the current level of 21.0 cents has ONLY just caught up with the total return it would have otherwise achieved has they bought into 60 % of Frontier's Oct 4th Market Capitalization of A$185.83 million instead of its 60% of Moblan for around $125 million.

    So on paper , that would have been around approximately A$327 million gain realized on the investment in Frontier versus the now equivalent recognised dollar and valuation appreciation in Sayona's market cap of around A$351 million .

    The thing about this though , and while you can never be absolutely certain as to what the Market is actually ascribing the current increases in the value of Sayona to , it would appear that NONE of it is really centered around Moblan. Couldn't possibly be just on account of pending expected drill results and subsequent upgrades in Moblan JORC could it ?......what.png

    So obviously there are a myriad of ' cumulative ' value events being applied or discounted into how the Market sees the valuation of Sayona's projects. It also becomes more difficult when the entire Lithium Market seems to be rising more or less in ' Sync ' which is why I like to lock in the ' Like for Like ' changes on BOTH Sigma and Frontier to back at the base starting point of the Moblan transaction. Because for ages , we were tracking ' Massively ' behind this measure , and are only now recouped this value against Frontier , but are still tracking substantially behind Sigma Lithium.

    My final observation is with respect to the twitter conference advice in Yikka's above post ......where I would make the following observations.

    Remembering the Sayona announcement on 24th August regarding the OTC listing of the SYAXF's by OTCQB and the statement heading in that announcement of " Enhances Access for North American Investors "

    So we ALL know what the involvement Canaccord had as the Lead Manager in the Moblan acquisition as well as the earlier NAL and May equity raising's - But what interests me even more is that not only are were they involved in the recent Piedmont raising , so too were Jett Capital Advisors who we also know had been involved in consecutive Sayona raisings as well as the former Altura .....but also ThinkEquity and Tuohy Brothers who have been involved in previous Sayona raisings as well. So there is obviously a bit of new found crossover and / or sharing of New York based Private Equity and Financial concerns.

    So given there are some additional former Sayona co-managers who are now getting involved in Piedmont raises as well.......

    ....Does this then mean that we will see J.P Morgan and Evercore involved in our own possible capital raising or will it just be Acuity's current facility being required together with existing cash and possible additional funding from Quebec.

    It almost becomes more intriguing when we consider how much of the Piedmont raise is actually being allocated to the funding of its 25% interest in the NAL and Quebec projects. If we just use basic neat and rounded amounts , is it $25 million , $50 million , or $75 million. Because these increments would obviously result in a corresponding commitment by Sayona of $75 million , $150 million , or $225 million.

    So in so far as the so called ' Start-up ' capital required for NAL , I'm inclined to think it is only the first option of those 3 at a total amount of only $75 million required by Sayona ....because anything above that is certainly going to get interesting as to where and from whom these higher amounts will come from.

    And even more interesting given the fact that Investment Quebec who is moderating the above Investment Conference refers to Piedmont NASDAQ , and Sayona'S investor connection as OTCQB : SYAXF..... and NOT anything to do with Sayona Mining ( Parent ) who Brett is obviously MD and CEO.

    So where' Guy' on this one .... or is it more ' High Level ' Quebec Government involvement and funding which is why it is Just Keith and Brett.....sneaky.png

    Show really knows , but I did say back in December / early Jan that there might be a capital raised in around the same time as last May's renounceable rights issue .....So April / May may in fact be that window again. Now whether it just involves Acuity with their additional $43- 44 odd million left in their ATM facility or not will remain to be seen.

    Whatever the case , perhaps this would be the only reason I could fathom that a ' handbrake ' would be applied to the SP's ascension at this time. However, looking at how Piedmont's SP has held up with its raise , I don't see a problem of the SP languishing too long as was the case with the Moblan transaction.


 
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7 1358885 2.8¢
 

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2.9¢ 4538399 12
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