bly 14 december, 2009

Boart Longyear closes at 8.8% above VWP but at 20.0% discount to 52-week high December 14, 2009

Boart Longyear (BLY.AU), Australia's 14th largest energy company by market capitalisation, closed unchanged at 36.0c, ending a five-day streak of rises. The price is at a premium of 8.8% to the 1-month volume weighted average price of 33.0c. Given that this premium has been under 8.8% forty-four times and over 8.8% twenty-eight times in the last year, the downside:upside probability is estimated at 44:28 or 1.6:1. Compared with the All Ordinaries index, which rose 16.8 points (or 0.4%) on the day, this was a relative price change of -0.4%.

PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
Volatility: the stock traded between an intraday low of 34.50c and a high of 36.0c, suggesting a trading opportunity between peaks and troughs.
Moving average price (MAP): the price to 200-day MAP ratio is 1.5, a bullish indicator. In the past 200 days this ratio has exceeded 1.5 19 times suggesting further upside. The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 31.0c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 24.0c, a bullish indicator. The 200-day MAP has increased to 24.0c. An increase is another bullish indicator.
Relativities: today its percentile rank in the Australian market was 56. In the Australian market of 1,371 stocks traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 33 which means it has underperformed 67.0% of the market.
Volume: there were 63,138,509 shares worth $22.3 million traded. The volume was 1.2 times average trading of 50,608,747 shares.
% Discount to high: the last price is at a discount of 20.0% to the 12-month high of 45.0c four months ago on 14 Aug, 2009.
Rises to Falls: In the last three months the number of rises outnumbered falls 30:24 or 1.2:1.

PRICE PERFORMANCE RANK IN INDICES AND SECTORS
The stock is in 5 indices and 2 sectors.
The following index and sector rose :
Total Australian Market of 1371 stocks traded today, which was up 355.1 points or 2.7% to 13,626.0,
All Ordinaries index of 440 stocks traded today, which was up 16.8 points or 0.4% to 4,668.2
The stock was unchanged at 36.0c while the Energy sector of 146 stocks traded today, was down 5.7 points or 0.1% to 7,670.0

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS [RVI] FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Signals:
- Price/Earnings of 3.2 versus sector average of 9.9 and market average of 9.7.
- The earnings yield of 31.67% exceeds 10-year bond yield of 5.41%.
- Price/Sales of 0.27 versus sector average of 9.3 and market average of 14.7.
- Return on Equity of 102.9% versus sector average of 24.3% and market average of 18.0%.
- Total Liabilities/EBITDA of 3.2 is less than 5, this compares favourably with Joseph Piotroski benchmark of 5.
Bearish Signals:
- Return on Assets of 12.1% versus sector average of 13.4% and market average of 6.4%.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS [RVI] TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Signals:
- The price soared 10.8% in the last week and 20.0% in the last month.
- This has been propped up by robust volume of 2.4 times average for the week and by firm volume 1.6 times average for the month.
- The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 31.0c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 24.0c.
- The 200-day MAP has increased to 24.0c.
Bearish Signals:
- In the Australian market of 1,371 stocks traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 33 which means it has underperformed 67.0% of the market.

SHAREHOLDER RETURNS
Trailing one week: the stock rose four times (80% of the time) and was unchanged once (20% of the time). The volume was 2.4 times average trading of 253,043,735 shares. The value of $1,000 invested a week ago is $1,161 [vs $994 for the All Ordinaries index], for a capital gain of $161(or rise of 16.1%).
Trailing one month: the stock rose eleven times (52% of the time), fell seven times (33% of the time) and was unchanged three times (14% of the time). The volume was 1.6 times average trading of 1,113,392,434 shares. The value of $1,000 invested a month ago is $1,200 [vs $990 for the All Ordinaries index], for a capital gain of $200(or rise of 20.0%).
Trailing one year: the value of $1,000 invested one year ago is $1,565 [vs $1,386 for the All Ordinaries index], for a capital gain of $565. The total return to shareholders for 1 year is 56.5%.
Trailing five years: the value of $1,000 invested five years ago is $200, including a capital loss of $805 and dividend reinvested of $6.

FUNDAMENTALS
Earnings: the earnings yield of 31.7% is 5.9 times the 10-year bond yield of 5.4%.
P/E: the trailing twelve months P/E is 3.2 times, giving it a percentile rank of 92.6 by P/E. It therefore represents better value than 92.6% of other Australian stocks with earnings (rank 49 out of 637).
P/S: the price/sales ratio is attractive at 0.3.

ISSUED CAPITAL
The market capitalisation is $1.5 billion. It is Australia's 29th largest Energy company by assets. (were a few ppl after the market cap the other day???)