We have the scoping study to work off. From what I see, the scoping study is telling us we need at least 0.4g/t to be profitable. Assuming all our inferred resource at korbel can become indicated, this wil give us 5.1moz. Recovery of 88% = 4.488moz
Assuming production of 200,000oz pa, this will push the mine life out to 22 years
In an environment of rising interest rates, I would adopt a discount rate of 7.5%
Cappex (add 20% for inflation) $580m
Minning costs of $1,000/oz usd = $1,350/oz (AUD)
Gold price $1800/oz usd ( $2450 AUD)
I'm getting an NPV of $1.9b.
This still doesn't include RPM but assumes 100% interest (I know the deal of the 15% holding has been pointed out to me, but I can't remember the exact agreement, I think it almost worked like a royalty)
So far I gather management are thinking they can add 1 scoop of rpm to 10 scoops of korbel and lift the average grade to 0.5g/t , giving us 9.6m "mine-able" ounces. If the metallurgist concur (extraction from RPM hasn't been confirmed yet, but it looks like it's the same host rock as korbel), then this would be great. Production would then lift to 250,000oz pa (process same amount of rock, higher grade results in more gold). This will push the mine life out to 38 years and give us a NPV of $3b
Does this mean we are undervalued?
No - you need to price risk. The above numbers are true for a mine in production. We still have a lot of hurdles till we get there.
more drilling for indicated resource, more testing, environmental studies, permits etc.. etc... etc....
All in all, what sort of reward do you want for the risk? 10 bags? 20 bags?
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