Based on Fingers xed table suggesting an average of 55-57% Market cap to NPV for projects at various stages of development (most not started construction yet), I think the following would be reasonable for EUR assuming an A$1 Billion NPV when DFS is released;
25% of NPV / A$250M market cap or say 25 cents per share upon DFS release (aligns nicely with First Berlin target)
30-35% of NPV / A$325M market cap or say 30+ cents per share upon DFS, then signed off-take
40-50% of NPV / $450M market cap or say 45 cents per share upon DFS, then off-take, then finance secured
The following 2-3 years will then move close to 100% of the NPV and contemplate market pricing, construction progress and the like. Around $1 per share upon commissioning, maybe more pending Hydroxide pricing, maybe a bit less depending on dilution.
These are my indicative targets. I will certainly be holding the majority of shares to realise the value at the production stage. 3 or so years might seems like a long time, but I can wait that long to grow my investment by 20-30 times (as I hold mostly options). I will probably sell a few to be well and truly free carried after the finance stage. No hurry. I am a buyer, not a seller at the current prices.
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