Ann: Executive Change, page-58

reading the PR, it seems highly unlike there will be any attempt to buy something new. this would be a huge negative for the bulk of the register at this point and the Chairman knows it. the language in the PR is quite direct, 'a period of transition' with no attempt to hire a new executive; retaining Cath for he advice (on Gambia divestiture I guess) for just 12 months; and then direct calling out of initiatives to 'reflect the underlying asset value in the share price' is not language you would see if a new risky initiative were being contemplated. instead it directly recalls the language in the Target Statement whereby $1 minimum of hard per share value was outlined.

in other words this is a liquidation. I expect it will take around 12mos, or less, and we will likely get back a substantial portion of our cost basis, in cash, via special dividend or (ideally and my preference) a tender via off-market buyback.

in a variety of conservative scenarios, assuming a 12mo liquidation and nothing more than $1 of total value and 79c entry price, I get a mid-30s% to 50% IRR with still a 10% IRR in the worst worst case (eg a sale of the woodside earnout at 50c on the dollar, no tender, and a 15mo process).

frankly this remains quite mispriced. assuming they announce a plan to formally wind up, in the coming days (still some risk), this should trade well into the mid-high 80s, in my view.