IVZ media thread, page-1931

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FiendishRedbeard

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26/03/22

22:40

Post #: 60445554
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Originally posted by 7seven7: ↑

It appears from the latest Zim media articles and interview with Stuart, July seems to be the target date for the final update or side letter to the PEDPA/PSA to iron out the final commercial and fiscal aspects.

For me, having a PSA will be nice as it will make dealing with financing parties or JV partners easier in future as everyone in the industry knows what a PSA is and how they are structured. But if it is true that the PEDPA will cover all of the same aspects as the PSA covers, then I guess we don't need it. I've worked on 10s of projects in Africa/Mid East and this would be the first without a PSA. But again, if the PEDPA contains all the same material, then whatever, it's fine. I've never seen a PEDPA until IVZ.

In the end we are dealing with a fairly unstable African country that is likely to flip flop on terms and want to renegotiate at times anyway even after a PSA is signed. I've seen this first hand working in nearby countries... sometime's terms are renegotiated to suit the country, sometimes to suit the operating company to better incentivise an accelerated development.

In terms of infrastructure in Zim... I assume if there are liquids they will truck them to market from wherever the separator/CPF is. For gas, I assume an interconnector to one of the primary pipelines that run through Zim. And perhaps some smaller pipelines where required if IVZ want to get in to the electricity generation game as well - or sell to electricity generators in the country. I believe they already have an MoU or two in place for this.

In terms of a pipeline to a port/coast for LNG export like you mentioned.... I can't see it happening. Rare enough for a company to be doing an LNG expansion these days that it is hard to see big investment for LNG in another new country - especially with this much country/regional instability. Mozambique has put a lot of people off.

Mini-LNG could very much be an option here - if there is a market for LNG within trucking distance... but I think gas for electricity generation in Zim and perhaps some gas export to surrounding countries is the most likely play here... with any liquids put in to trucks and sold. Will be very low capex compared to the others and quick to monetise the gas. To be more vertically integrated, they could even enter a JV for a new or existing gas powered plant for electricity.

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Local gas sales and export to South Africa should be faster and perhaps as if not more profitable than LNG export. South Africa is a mess.

IVZ Price at posting: 19.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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