Pick The Bottom, page-3

I'm reasonably confident it will be below the IPO price within 9-12 months. It's not worth more than 30c-40c right now, imo; covid retail boom unwinding, unsustainable ad spending with low ROI, founder selling down and the opaqueness around how merchants are getting supply of these brands. The pumpy announcements around becoming a seller on JD and the beauty products thing were pretty transparent. They need to show that the business involves a bit more than pointing a fire hose filled with cash at advertising (seriously, $2 spend for $1 increase in GP). I don't believe they currently can maintain the growth profile they need to justify the valuation while at the same time reducing marketing costs to show a pathway to sustainable profitability. That's basically the crux of it.

Why you'd value this on a revenue multiple is absolutely beyond me. They are a reseller with the (shrinking) GPM of any run of the mill retailer. Sure they might be growing quickly but it's not hitting the bottom line – gross profit doesn't even cover marketing spend. The founder has basically telegraphed he's going to dump more shares. It's hard to see a reason to buy when Mintz is selling 10s of millions of dollars worth every time he gets the chance.