Typed out a great long reply and it disappeared. Haven't had time to do it again. I'll give you the shortened version. Apologies to you for my slow response, BB.
Chartists looking at the chart I posted above would most likely say that the stock had run into overhead resistance, had formed a double top and had just broken downwards.
I fudged that chart a bit by cutting off the last few days on the right hand side. The chart is actually Grange Resources, GRR, a single mine iron ore miner in Tasmania. Subsequently, the price shot up, instead of down, and now looks like this:
Reason? GRR management changed the dividend policy, and that incentive was immediately reflected in the share price and the stock continues to be rerated. Any Gap Theorists out there? This one ain't coming back to fill the gap. To be honest, I don't think any fundamentalists saw it coming either.
Wegian, your investment thesis is that the MGX share price is driven solely by the IO price. Well, if that were the case, all other stocks that derive all or nearly all their revenue from iron ore sales, e.g. GRR, FEX FMG, others, should perform very similarly to MGX. But clearly they don't, as you can see by comparing the charts. The IO index price is just one component in share price movement, and often not the most important factor. As many have already pointed out, no ships leaving Koolan equals no revenue, just spending. No matter what the IO price is doing. Which is why some of us count ships.
The tally since July 1st is eight ships departed. Each ship carries 80,000 tonnes [within a margin of 1,000 tonnes]. So far that is 640,000 tonnes. Leaving 860,000 tonnes, to be loaded into 11 ships before June 30th to meet that 1.5 million tonne bottom of guidance for the FY. We know from our observing that it is highly unlikely that a ship will be loaded now and gone by April 15. That leaves just about 11 weeks of the June quarter to load 11 ships. That's still the official guidance but I don't really see it, at this stage. I'm thinking about seven for the June quarter is all they will do.
So, disappointing March quarter, miss current guidance for June quarter and the full year. I'm thinking a drifting share price, about 55 cents by end of July. End of year around 75 - 80 as MGX ups their game. Yeah sure, I'd love to see $1, $2 whatever by the end of year, too. And if wishes were horses, then beggars would ride. In other words, best to be realistic.
Personally, I think it will be more helpful if the shipcounters kept to their own ship tracking threads here and the chartists kept to their own place with their colourful but highly exaggerated charts, and all other posts went to some 'general business' place. It's getting unnecessarily complicated.
(20min delay)