Media Thread, page-5122

Hi Kluck, i have appreciated your posts recently, particularly to encourage others to stay patient, thanks. I have bought even more in SMSF at 27.5c last week.

On the point of risks. To not state the risk, even if it is obvious, comes across as marketing / salesmanship to me. Remember she is talking to many people who do not understand the industry at all, such as the interviewers. It might be appropriate to state the industry average success rates in phase 1 / 2 to set the benchmark and then perhaps where she sees IMU against that.

I know i have invested before ignoring, using confirmation bias or not understanding the risks, and have been burnt. Now i think i have a reasonable handle of the risks of IMU but what is a bit harder to understand is the probabilities and associated value changes. I haven't done a quantitative analysis but it could be done like this for each product. For example for checkvaxx it might be (change the numbers)

failure = 30% probability, poor result = 30% probability, good result = 30% probability, great result = 10% probability.
failure = - $0.5B, poor result = - $0.3B, good result = + $1B, great result = + $5B.
value change = - $0.5Bx0.3 - $0.3Bx0.3 + $1Bx0.3 + $5Bx0.1 = +$0.56B

And then one could consider what the market has attributed as the current value of checkvaxx and compare to ones estimate.

It is easy to fall in love with a stock, and the charismatic Leslie. Many on the forum seem to have done that. The best investors (not me) understand the risk reward well, enjoy the volatility, and are patient and unemotional.

Enjoy your weekend.