Hello
@dasha.
You are very welcome. I should have mentioned the variable nature of growth predictions.
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We have hurdles to jump but are in an exciting and incredibly important transformation of the magnesium industry. I did some further research on the predicted market growth for magnesium and have to say the projections are highly subjective.
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From LMG's Melbourne Mining Club Presentation March - 2022
"
Magnesium Market is Set to Double Over Next Decade". That is an increase from ~ 1m tonnes to ~2 m tonnes per annum.
https://www.latrobemagnesium.com/investor-center/announcements.
There are many variables but given the following, high demand will continue to grow exponentially. I have seen the CAGR (Compound annual growth rate) being predicted from 4.5% to 7.5%, there is a massive difference from one to the other. The bottom line is that demand for magnesium will certainly continue to grow. I personally believe the growth to be underestimated and not including massive areas of reform and industry development.
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The greatest variables impacting upon growth (CAGR) are the following imo.
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1. The most obvious of all is the massive demand that is going to blast sky high as a consequence of the EV phenomenon.
Petrol prices are actually a blessing in disguise for magnesium demand. I have read the EV sales in 2022 so far have broken all records and the attraction to EV is greater than ever due to outrageous petrol prices.
2. The unrest at a geopolitical level impacting upon trade with USA from both Russia and China.
3. The very high Co2 emissions from current industry best practice.
4. The growing and world wide goal to increase expenditure on military advancement and production in fighter planes, missiles, tanks, etc in the ongoing arms war. The proliferation of war weapons will definitely have an impact upon supply availability, who will sell to whom and the implications for price.
5. Market having to demonstrate low Co2 emissions and the benefits associated with "Green Magnesium"
6. The dire need to remove toxic waste from the sector and to clean up the industry production of both C02 and toxic waste.
7. China magnesium being at 100% capacity during the time when China is not favoured by many as it strives to be a dominant super power.
8. The unknow and unspoken potential and scope for magnesium's role in aerospace, batteries and nautical applications.
9. The cost effectiveness of reusing fly ash and ferro nickel slag.
10. Market preference for green credits to offset the own C02 emissions for the sake of market acceptance or even market access.
11. The eventual shunning of the Pidgeon process and the potential tracking of chain of custody and certification.
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I am sure that I could explore even more variables if I put my thinking cap on..
In my mind, I cannot see a retrace of pricing for magnesium or demand for clean and green magnesium.
My best wishes to all holders, this share could be life changing.
Regards
Ken
