Further to the recent broker commentary suggesting that our "by product" Lithium Carbonate in full production could add US$400M (and become the biggest producer of Lithium Carbonate in the USA) to our EBITDA, I thought it time to revisit what our soon to be released revised BFS might look like. Firstly, our current BFS has an EBITDA of US$452.7M based on annual production of 450000 tons of Boric acid and 400000 tons of SOP. The price assumption for our boric acid was US$680 per ton whilst the current price is US$1100 per ton. I think an assumed price of $900p/t is very realistic and would add US$99M to the EBITDA. The current price of SOP is around US$1000 per ton compared with the last BFS assumed price of US$648 p/t so Im thinking a realistic number is US$850 p/t adding a further US$80.8M to the EBITDA. Now, if I trim the Lithium Carbonate contribution back to US$370M that gives an EBITDA of US$1002.5M or about a 120% increase. Based on these back of envelope numbers the share price would have to be well and truly into double digits. It should also be remembered that we now have a much larger resource and production numbers and potential EBITDA figures could be significantly higher along with reduced operating costs. Add to the new BFS due this quarter, USA broker reports Im hearing will be out shortly with lofty price targets and coupled with the recent USA classing our Fort Cady project as critical infrastructure expect the share price to start moving up rapidly in the not too distant future.
5EA Price at posting:
$2.40 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
