The above screenshot is from the recent presentation slides. So I will assume that VR8 will fund 40% of initial CAPEX through issue of shares.
Initial CAPEX is USD $200m but they only need to cover 73.95% of this. So this will become USD $147.9m / AUD $199.3m.
40% of this will be equity funded. So this will be AUD $79.7m. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I will be conservative and assume the share price only reaches 20 cents by the time funding is required. I will also assume they raise AUD $100m so they have some spare cash to fund operating costs.
100m / 20cent = 500m shares.
If we add the current SOI of 473m, total SOI will become 973m. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Now time for profit. This part I am not confident with so it is just a guess. Lets assume VR8 will make AUD $150m NPAT per annum. This is roughly half of forecasted annual EBITDA.
PE ratio = 10 SOI = 973m NPAT = 150m Share price = x
10 = x / 0.154 x = $1.54
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Share Price forecast = $1.54 So the share price could reach $1.54 by 2025. Plenty of upside if all goes to plan.
(if someone understands the profit better please feel free to adjust the NPAT figure in my calculation and share it with us)
VR8 Price at posting:
11.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
