How many TO do we see at a 130% premium .. Answer- not many.
i think a 30c TO while stock trades at 13.5c is wishful thinking. If we take Petra 22c valuation and add let’s say 5 -6c cents for some exploration and appraisal success over next 12-24 months , gets us to 27-28c . This assumes a lower oil price than current ofcourse, but few would pay current spot valuation for Assets I imagine. So one would assume any acquirer would launch a TO at a level that they see value for them . So a 20c bid could see an acquirer benefit 40-50% or 60% is oil stayed elevated. It would also result on a price and a medium term return that major shareholders like Samuel Terry may be happy to exit. I couldn’t see a higher bid ST , unless we had some meaningful discoveries and reserve additions. Having said that a 20c bid would see a 50% gain for current shareholders which would for me be attractive. It is true a longer term hold may result in greater value extraction, but a quick 50% premium would also be attractive as one can naturally reallocate the capital . Either way I think we could extract 20-25c from HZN over next 3-4 years which I would see coming say from 12-15c distributions and selling existing shares. I we received 13c dividends over next 3 years and sold HZN at say 12c one would make nearly 90%. Not unrealistic if one considers end of June cash should be about 2.7c per share net cash and next 12 months cash cash flow circa 5.5-6c
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Last
18.5¢ |
Change
-0.010(5.13%) |
Mkt cap ! $300.6M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
19.0¢ | 19.0¢ | 18.5¢ | $153.5K | 824.7K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
38 | 1168836 | 18.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
19.0¢ | 582270 | 7 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
37 | 1110458 | 0.185 |
35 | 2085825 | 0.180 |
10 | 835725 | 0.175 |
11 | 1179812 | 0.170 |
3 | 46050 | 0.165 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.190 | 582270 | 7 |
0.195 | 689227 | 7 |
0.200 | 378874 | 8 |
0.205 | 117235 | 6 |
0.210 | 799609 | 7 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 18/10/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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HZN (ASX) Chart |