ZIP (ASX) I'm calling it! This is the bottom !!!!!

Originally posted by nakervirus: ↑

In regards to escalating bad debts, I believe this is something that can easily be resolved long term - cut off the customers responsible for the bad debts until they are paid off and you already largely solve the problem moving forward as the remainder of your customers are good quality customers. Obviously as they grow they will continue to obtain bad quality customers as well that will contribute towards bad debts, but I believe this is only an issue short term - if they gain 1 million customers and 25,000 customers are responsible for the bad debts, then you remove them from the system continuously and will be left at the end with all the good quality customers that you can rely on for quality revenue.

In regards to the acquisition of Sezzle, they are acquiring a reasonably large customer base and more importantly a large number of partnered merchants. And obviously there will be plenty of benefits in shared IP/technology as well as cost synergies. I'd also love to see them purchase Laybuy to strengthen their UK offering.

In regards to no profitability until 2023/2024, I don't have any issue with this as they should be focusing on growth. Obtain a large enough customer base and they will have no issues leveraging that into solid profitability long term.

In regards to the reduction of the workforce, this is largely related to the cost saving synergies with Sezzle - there would be many positions that are duplicated within the two companies and so it only makes sense that the workforce is reduced. Also, hopefully, the staff they have cut have contributed in meaningful ways to whatever technologies they have been working on behind the scenes, and I'm hoping that they are close to releasing a few more features into their app ecosystem which means those staff are no longer required anyway.

In regards to rising interest rates, I am not convinced the interest rate hikes will be as severe as people are claiming it will be. I expect supply chain disruption to minimalise over the next 12 months, and inflation to subside over the next 12 months as a result. And even if interest rates do increase, I believe Larry Diamond and other BNPL CEOs have indicated that it only has a minor effect on their overall revenue. Interest rate rises do mean more pressure on the consumer, and that may translate to an increase in bad debts - but it could also translate into an increase in adoption of BNPL/other forms of credit as a way to help mitigate the effects of increased interest rates.

In regards to no large institutional investors, I agree this would be nice to have - hopefully this is something Zip can achieve over the next 12 months.

In regards to slow release of other products for their ecosystem, I agree things have probably been a little bit on the slow side - but good products do take time to build/test etc, and I believe we are still within the timeframe they indicated for the release of these other products/revenue streams. Hopefully we see some more news on this front over the next 6 months.

In regards to further dilution, this is certainly a risk - but I believe we are fast approaching profitability (i.e. in the next 24-36 months) and so the need for additional cash should subside over this time, and thereby the need for dilution should decrease.

Just my thoughts.

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Thanks for your considered reply.
I continue to reflect on all these factors. Some more thoughts particularly regarding bad debts.
Z1P bad debts (or provisions for, which some will be recouped from);
Rose (H1 2021 -2022) 502% from 29.5 mill to 148.3 mill.
This represented 49% of revenue.

SZL bad debts (2 provisions in their report);
Rose (H1 2021 - 2022) 269% from 22.2 mill to 59.9 mill
This represented 61% of revenue.

Why this doesn't alarm investors more I do not know.
I thought Z1P did credit checks?
In what business analysis would you 'ignore' the signs and allow a 500% increase in bad debts provision...?
Is this why Z1P has not attracted even ONE significant investor (in my books 10%)? We will never know.

People are 'trusting' management to turn this around.
What targets have they set?
Perhaps you can allay my concerns...

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(20min delay)
Last $3.35		Change 0.100(3.08%)		Mkt cap ! $4.373B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$3.29	$3.44	$3.29	$51.45M	15.25M

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