whats the share valuatuion, page-3

sads
howabout this for a punt

the 'independent' report earlier this year estimated the npv of atc based on dcf @ $150-225M

its pretty easy to come up with a simple spreadsheet npv based on the numbers used in that report, and to update them a year...

doing that, being 1 yr closer to such a cash flow, gives an additional about $50M by end 2009

increasing the p(success) to 0.95 from 0.9 because of the progress and data in last yr adds another $25M

similar guesstimates of a npv of $50M for the integrase preclinical deal

add them all up = $275-350M

which puts us at 40c...

the upside to this valuation is mostly related to the 'conservative' estimates used in the 'independent' report (like selling price, sales, royalty...) and how good the deal/partner is at fdc etc

and also how soon the cash flow starts (when to market), with the ind report assuming mid-2012, and that now possibly being much sooner

by the time atc reaches market, my simple dcf npv comes up with another 10-15c in sp, and another 10-15c in sp when at peak sales...

glta