Beijing101,
First of all, you should take responsibility for your irresponsible words like""about 1 in 10 at the very very best..." your new post already verified your scrap.
I do admit I have limited knowledge on oil-industry. However I know the same risk applys to every oil-producer, to the whole west Africa off-shore area.
In your opinion, all of them can not drill a deep water well in one year time, plus "1 in 10 at the very very best"
Sounds like every oil company should stop any project and shut down right now!
My major is commerce, I understand from business need point of view, drilling a well is a must for FAR in 2010.
what are the chances of a single hole success, page-6
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