To have predicted that Labour would lose would have not required any rocket science on anyones behalf. But to assume the world according to Howard is gospel is folly to say the least.
Howard will relinquish his mantle within the next 24 months and it won't be to Costello. No one wants inspector Blakey (from on the Busess), a pretend Paul Keating from all his mannerisms and body language.
The next Liberal Prime Minister will be Malcolm Turnbull not elected to the office by the electorate but by the parliamentary liberal party apparatus. Thats within 24 months.
The ensuing disatissfaction will see an early poll (federal election). Interest rates will rise before the new year is out, oil will rise to US$60 before the year is out. I made the forecast of US$50 18 months ago and before and stand by the new forecasts.
The housing market will not be corrected, it will collapse and there will be a record number of bankruptcies, marriage break ups, corporate collapses as well.
Many of the coroporate collapses have already occured but have been concealed. AMP will come out of the closet within the next 6 months and reveal the extent of the damage they really suffered. One of Australia's largest corporations was pilfered for more than 10 years and the practice accelerated during the past 6. I once more make the forecast that 2 of the 4 major banks will also be forced out of the closet and the news will shock.
The levels of migration of Asians (especially from Hong Kong and China) will become an issue. Historically this happens when the chips are always down. History has shown us that our tolerance levels fall when the good times wither away.
There have been number of immigration scandals which have been conveniently swept under the carpet. The Poms who were the largest illegals in Aussie for ages have now been replaced by the South East Asians, Chinese from Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia (ndonesia being the most prominent).
There has been extra legislative decisions taken to admit migrants from these states after they turned 45 and their business credentials suspect. The media had played the 'look the other way' card on these issues. A number of cabinet ministers will be implicated in pay for passport scandals and at least 2 will quit. One of whom mayactually quit before it becomes an issue. he will cite age and his years in politics and family. I won't name him.
On the dollar front, yes the Aussie will rise for a while but not anything like the interest rate climb you will experience in the new year. it will be blamed on oil price rises. If you believe that that is the sole determinant to fixing interest rates, look out for Santa around Christmas.
Good Luck to thoe of you who believed the Magic of Howard. Bad Luck to those of you who believed the Labour Party had anything to offer.
All in all the Liberals did not win, Labour and the Country lost. But what alternatives?? Good share punting.
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