Likely outcome
ASIC has recently suffered 2 very embarrassing losses while attempting to prosecute individuals for market manipulation.
In both cases ASIC lost due to the unsatisfactory level of data to support their assertions.
As a result of these loses ASIC will be very keen to successfully prosecute a high profile individual for unacceptable behaviour and restore their credibility.
A precise record of all transactions is by law maintained by the ASX. These records will clearly illustrate who has profited from recent events.
To obtain the ASX data ASIC (or any other party) simply need to present an argument to a judge that provides justification to issue a subpoena.
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