YAL

1.18%

$6.88 yancoal australia limited

Ann: Quarterly Activities Report, page-7

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SP007

1,113 Posts.

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20/04/22

23:05

Post #: 60945492

Originally posted by merwej: ↑
My previous post earlier today did not age well! The learned members of this forum stated that YAL mostly sells 5500 coal and not 6000 which whc mostly sells. I have updated my estimated earnings per quarter for the 5 qtrs to see how the current quarter compares with others. I have updated non operational costs for FY22 to be $650m in line with guidance. The qtr profits for FY21 do not tie back 100% to full year since there are other minor revenues and costs which I do not see as material. So my estimate EPS for Q1 FY22 is 49c compared with 51c for Q4 F21. Note the EPS for full year FY21 was 60c. I have estimate for half year and full year based on guidance. Seems like FY guidance production (lowest point) and highest cost with avg price of $258 gives EPS of $2.34. I aslo did a sensitivity at $200 average price for FY22. These are just estimates (clearly).
1
FY21 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 22 H1 FY22 estimate F22 Forecast F22 Forecast 0
2 Revenue 5404 756.8 868.6 1612 2069.1 2012.4 4351.6 9030 7000
3 Realised Price 141 88 101 155 209 258 258 258 200
4 Cost 2874 610.6 627.8 800.8 782.1 678.6 1580.7 3045 3045
5 Ebidta 2530 146 241 811 1,287 1,334 2,771 5,985 3,955
6 Shares 1320 1320 1320 1320 1320 1320 1320 1320 1320
7 EPS 0.60 -0.11 -0.06 0.25 0.51 0.50 1.05 2.34 1.24
8

9 Profit before tax 1104 -210 -116 455 931 914 1,931 4,305 2,275
10 Tax 312.432 -60 -33 129 263 259 546 1,218 644
11 NPAT 791.568 -151 -83 326 667 655 1,384 3,087 1,631
12

13 Amort 830 207.5 207.5 207.5 207.5 207.5 415 830 830
14 Finance 286 71.5 71.5 71.5 71.5 50.05 100.1 200.2 200.2
15 Non Operating 310 77.5 77.5 77.5 77.5 162.5 325 650 650
16 Tax 28.30% 28.30% 28.30% 28.30% 28.30% 28.30% 28.30% 28.30% 28.30%
17

18 Sales volume 37.5 8.6 8.6 10.4 9.9 7.8 16.87 35 35
19 Average Price 141 88 101 155 209 258 258 258 200
20 Cost 66 60 62 66 68 76 76 76 76
21 Royalties 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
Expand
yeah so conservative ends of guidance you got about 6bb of ebitda, putting this on about 1.5x ev/ebitda. will be a gift if the stock is down tomorrow.

YAL Price at posting: $5.25 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held

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Last $6.88		Change 0.080(1.18%)		Mkt cap ! $9.084B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$6.85	$6.93	$6.84	$8.934M	1.297M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	3271	$6.85

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$6.90	20480	9

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	3271	6.850
7	43826	6.840
1	10000	6.830
2	13571	6.820
11	37480	6.800

Price($)	Vol.	No.
6.900	20480	9
6.910	6813	1
6.920	26713	3
6.930	104233	2
6.940	2000	1

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YAL (ASX) Chart

Ann: Quarterly Activities Report, page-7

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1			FY21	Q1 21	Q2 21	Q3 21	Q4 21	Q1 22	H1 FY22 estimate	F22 Forecast	F22 Forecast 0
2	Revenue	5404	756.8	868.6	1612	2069.1	2012.4	4351.6	9030	7000
3	Realised Price	141	88	101	155	209	258	258	258	200
4	Cost	2874	610.6	627.8	800.8	782.1	678.6	1580.7	3045	3045
5	Ebidta	2530	146	241	811	1,287	1,334	2,771	5,985	3,955
6	Shares	1320	1320	1320	1320	1320	1320	1320	1320	1320
7	EPS	0.60	-0.11	-0.06	0.25	0.51	0.50	1.05	2.34	1.24
8
9	Profit before tax	1104	-210	-116	455	931	914	1,931	4,305	2,275
10	Tax	312.432	-60	-33	129	263	259	546	1,218	644
11	NPAT	791.568	-151	-83	326	667	655	1,384	3,087	1,631
12
13	Amort	830	207.5	207.5	207.5	207.5	207.5	415	830	830
14	Finance	286	71.5	71.5	71.5	71.5	50.05	100.1	200.2	200.2
15	Non Operating	310	77.5	77.5	77.5	77.5	162.5	325	650	650
16	Tax	28.30%	28.30%	28.30%	28.30%	28.30%	28.30%	28.30%	28.30%	28.30%
17
18	Sales volume	37.5	8.6	8.6	10.4	9.9	7.8	16.87	35	35
19	Average Price	141	88	101	155	209	258	258	258	200
20	Cost	66	60	62	66	68	76	76	76	76
21	Royalties	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11

Ann: Quarterly Activities Report, page-7

Top Stories

Dart on-target for high-grade structures and multiple reefs at VIC's Rushworth

Macro Metals picks up 80% in Firebird's manganese plays; mining services operations to launch if decision to mine passed

Arafura updates on total US$1B funding as export banks and lenders take notice; heading toward FID for Nolans

iTech Minerals flags high-grade rockchip finds, boasting one sample at +18% copper. What lies underground remains to be seen

Pilot Energy awarded $6.5M in govt funding for Mid West Clean Energy Project

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