Hi Pmunt
I don't have much problem with Trafalgar's credibility.
They are headquartered in the UK but the arm that did the deal with ADX is based out of Luxembourg. Presumably laxer corporations laws exist there ? , or is it for tax purposes.
Ultimately, I think retail investors will fund Sambuca.
Wolfgang is a salesman and he reports in a way to push the greed buttons of the punters and push the limits of corporations law.
A bit like Gander-JPR, Sciano-GDN, to name a couple.
I remember JPR recently stated numerous times that they had a viable debt funding proposal on the table and potential farminees showing real intent. Of course that was rubbish and the current drilling was eventually funded by a 1:1 RI at a 50% discount.
Now that the WER failed farmout is confirmed, we can look at the most recent commercial transactions to value Sambuca
KIK paid $300k ea for their 30% of the two permits that Sambuca straddles.
Earlier in 2009, KIK sold those permits for a small loss, ie $280k ea.
Based on those transactions, Sambuca gross market value is ~$2mil.
If ADX do farm it out, I doubt it will be on a 2:1 basis
Perhaps they will retain ~20% free carried on the first well.
Anyway, its all speculation atm. I've learnt with these sorts of plays its better to enter post funding and with a firm spud date.
If they hit the market with an attractively discounted RI, there's usually time to acquire a small parcel to be eligible for entitlement and shortfall.
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