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Thaz

589 Posts.

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03/05/22

02:29

Post #: 61159467
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Originally posted by keatz: ↑

Think we all need to tame expectations a tad on the BFS. Lets just remember that the Cantor report was modelled out at 10mtpa and probably had AVZ input. That had an NPV valuing AVZ at around $1 a share.

A BFS takes into account a long term view on pricing and IMO will likely be $1,000-$1250 USD a tonne. Yes it sounds low but its over the long term and factoring more mines starting and also recycling of Lithium.

I think the key catalysts for me are:

- Hydroxide plant plants.
- Additional PLS plants
- Tin Mining starting earlier than expected.
- DRC battery plant
- Carriere de Leste JV
- Extra ownership %

I see $1.50-2 being achievable in the near term, Cantors report(sensitivity table) at a $1250 SC price had us valued at $1.50 so i see that as a reasonable target in the near term. But in the current global stock market client i dont expect AVZ to fly from a $4bn - $10bn company in a not overly bullish market.

For AVZ to show a $10bn NPV and justify a quick run to $2.50 would be almost impossible unless you use very high pricing, also that would mean (based on current ownership) that Manono (Dathcom) would be valued at $20bn!

Happy to be wrong, just have lowered my expectations at the moment.

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Fair enough. You do make some good points.

only thing is that I would not think that Cantor or Curran and co would have access to the 10mtpa figures and calculations - this would give rise to potential insider trading.

also, I would think that the 10mtpa study may have been updated during the process of the ML application.

AVZ Price at posting: 99.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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