I do not understand the rationale why the company (and many posters) still hold the line that production to commence end 2023 (not sure whether it includes or excludes 3 to 6 months of commissioning and ramping up period.
I believe the end of 2023 production target date was based on construction start mid 2021, now we are in mid 2022 still waiting for official ML.
I wont invest in AVZ as yet until the board / management are smarten up not to give unrealistic time line, spruiking unachievable time line by the sales guy Nige will not only destroy his creditability but basically creating a paradise for shorters to make money in AVZ stock where the SP will be punished big time for any miss target announcements on time or overblown budget during the course of construction..
Based on past projects by PLS, GXY (revamped from existing plant), Nembaska in Canada, they all took more than 2.5 year to 3 years, the case of Nembaska 4 years for construction only (excluding commissioning or ramp up).
How on earth, end of 2023 production is achievable building a plant in the middle of Africa with limited network of skilled/ experience Contractors / Sub contractors (as in Aust or Canada) and in rain prone region (4 solid months of rain in a year).
Remember, it is the construction of a large scale complex production plant not an ordinary house slab.
Next thing I need to satisfy myself before investing is -- do AVZ got the A team to deliver the project, bunch of sales people with no or limited experience is simply not going to deliver this high risks/ challenging project on time and on budget.
If the project is not executed diligently and professionally on time and budget, any missteps and any sign of fumbles and stumbles will only make shorters salivating and stick around for making quick bucks.
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