The way I figured the financials, their machines cost $3.6M, and make $1.25M p.a. profit over a 5 year initial contract. However, they are actually high maintenance, so cost of operation (Chrysos' responsibility as owners of rental equipment) are 80% of revenue. So for $3.6M investment you get $250K p.a. nett profit after costs.
On a pro-forma basis, there's $60M of money for operating costs to expand the business by building machines, so 19 more machines. Or $48M in the next 2 years, really, so less than 19 machines in 2 years. That's going to earn $20M p.a. for Chrysos - before costs! - for 5 years to 2027. In terms of nett profits, though, after costs, it's SFA. So there's either going to be loans taken out to fund new machines, or more capital raised to fund fleet expansion.
But when you look at the $650M list price, and consider at best $20M of profit to hold it up for 5 years, it's not surprising this got dumped harder than an inattentive boyfriend at Valentine's day. It's a more than 30:1 valuation on projected EARNINGS and way more on projected profit.
The fact that brokers backed this isn't surprising. If you can list something at $650M, and there's 6% clip on offer, they'll sell their grandmothers to get it done. But you really have to wonder about the value proposition if Chrysos isn't going to borrow money to expand (cheaper than new equity, and interest costs come off your tax bill), and if their whole business model isn't to displace fire assay from the market, and then jack prices up later. But that's a strategy that takes serious coin, and requires backing the business.
So, if you have a fetish for backing companies as they loss-lead into a relatively flat marketplace with a total accessible market of 200 Chrysos machines capable of generating $1B p.a. revenue at an un-stated cost of ~$750M to operate, which will take $7B of capital to achieve, then strap in, you've got a long time to get there!
It's almost like no one did the sums on this before floating it off like a viking burial. Well, almost no one.
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?
