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78.0¢ avz minerals limited

Ann: Trading Halt, page-135

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KMoney

173 Posts.

35

10/05/22

06:33

Post #: 61302250
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Originally posted by Bullseye80: ↑

Alright so im not sure what the result will be here, dont really understand it to tell the truth, but to put things in perspective. If worst case and AVZ ownership is at 36%, what does that mean? When producing 700,000 tonnes at a cost of US$460 a tonne and Aus dollar is .71, which it looks like going down. Lithium SC6 pot prices reported anywhere from US$3300 to US$6,300. So lets use $3000 a tonne to allow for extra costs and safety margin.
Say the market still has terrible sentiment when we hit production in a year or so and the company trades at a PE of 4. That would give us a share price of $1.26 on the 36% ownership. So at the moment we are selling a probable $1.26 for 78 cents on the fear that its not $1.78.
Ive played with some different inputs and got a pretty wide range of SP valuation from 20 cent to $12. Obviously we don't want to be losing 15% of the project but the real impact on SP ultimately coming from getting into production and the lithium price over the next few years.

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Rewind all those calculations.

Worst case is 51% after a 250m usd sale to CATL

AVZ Price at posting: 78.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
12 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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