If the current court case is resolved in a positive way for Aguia, I would expect a rerate of the company considering our current MC is under $20m.
The original project economic modeling was done with a potash price below $100/t for memory.
The October 2021 announcement of a MOU for bulk sale was at $74/t AUD FOB although this was non binding as per the announcement.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02441005-2A1333444?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
Given all fertilizer prices have risen dramatically since then the project economics must be looking very sweet now.
Below is a graphic from another potash companies presentation showing MCs of some larger fertilizer companies. This is from August last year.
Forward EV/EBITDA of around 8.
Someone maybe able to provide a better comparison for a company with a comparible resource and annual production to Aguia.
Monthly prices USD/t for various fertilizers going back around 12 months. Notice the steep price increases in all.
Just some idle speculation while we wait for the results of the trading halt.
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Last
2.5¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $27.01M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
2.5¢ | 2.5¢ | 2.5¢ | $51.06K | 2.042M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 205000 | 2.3¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
2.5¢ | 28587 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 205000 | 0.023 |
1 | 75000 | 0.022 |
1 | 300000 | 0.021 |
3 | 175000 | 0.020 |
1 | 40000 | 0.019 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.025 | 28587 | 1 |
0.026 | 321200 | 2 |
0.027 | 100000 | 1 |
0.029 | 100000 | 1 |
0.030 | 1200000 | 2 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 21/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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