Share Price Catalysts, page-1284

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kira1256

172 Posts.

46

12/05/22

12:35

Post #: 61365476
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Originally posted by retorn123: ↑

thats pretty good met
and better than the ongoing whingeing drivel

but...not quite right
they sell oil and gas, and also have about 300 boe gas hedge...your prices are all oil
then they sell at prices that are referenced off the wti, but are paid in cad looneys

the first reference off wti is wcs (canadian west coast select) which guidance is -13.5 usd as u mention
in other words wcs is 13.5 less usd

a quick check of the real time diff and wcs is here
https://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/energy-statistics/real-time-oil-prices-wti-brent-wcs-energy-stocks
diff is currently -13.5usd
wcs is usd91.98 and cad at 1.3, so ~cad$120 is the wcs value of oil where ce1 are paid in cad

brooks is lighter oil, so gets a few buck more than wcs
thorsby is heavier oil, so gets a few bucks less
gas is richer than standard so gets aeco plus a bit (aeco is a canadian gas reference)

this produces the revenue on the books
but with increasing wti, their paper-trade hedges have made a loss

they have hedges at very similar amounts and levels to most other producers in wcsb, done for important risk management

these are swap trades that have nothing to do with what they are paid for real oil, they are paper only
but its the combination of full payment for real oil, and loss from paper trade, that hits the bottom line

it looks like the table in quarterly just refers to swaps
and these hedges really drop to very little from october = q4, so no more hedge losses from then

so (forgetting gas) your little table should be revised to
1066 @ 88.97cad (not current 120cad)
1082 @ 120 cad (as paper trade is same as actual diff)
2051 @ 120 cad

Expand

From the quarterly, have they really hedged 50% of their production? What was the point in capital raise if they can't even capture the upside of high oil prices.

CE1 Price at posting: 15.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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