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noddan

6,473 Posts.

20/05/22

17:48

Post #: 61531072
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Originally posted by Justis ↑

You been praying with Scomo at hillsong ?

Still clutching at those primary vote straws LOL, LNP are about the same.

As I expected the polls have tighten a bit but still not enough, LNP only have a slim majority in the house so can't afford to lose any seats yet there are quite a few they look to lose.

Two factors I belive is behind LNP losing this election, first is voter distrust of Morrison and on top of that LNP have been in goverment for 9 years so voters will look for a change.

Just got this from Roy Morgan
The ALP has retained its lead over the L-NP in the final week of the election campaign and is set to win tomorrow’s Federal Election with a two-party preferred vote of ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% - a swing of 4.5% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

Roy Morgan continued interviewing throughout this week but there has been no evidence of a swing to the L-NP seen in previous weeks continuing during the final week of the campaign. In addition, of the 17.2 million Australians on the electoral roll, the AEC figures show that there are already over 7.3 million (42.7%) who have voted at a pre-poll location or who have requested or returned a postal vote.

L-NP’s primary vote is too low to win this year’s Federal Election
This week’s final Roy Morgan Poll showed support for the L-NP Coalition at only 34% of the primary vote – far too low for the party to have a chance of forming Government after the Federal Election.

At the 2019 Federal Election the Coalition received 41.4% of the primary vote to win a narrow majority. In the lead-up to the 2019 Federal Election the Roy Morgan Poll showed the Coalition with 39% of the primary vote – a full 5% points higher than now.

ALP primary support is also low at only 34%, however the ALP can rely on a strong preference flow from the Greens, primary support of 13%, to win enough seats to either form Government with a small majority, or to do a deal in a hung parliament to gain the extra 1-2 seats needed for a majority.

At the 2019 Federal Election Greens preferences flowed 82% ALP cf. 18% L-NP which with a Greens primary vote of 13% splits: ALP 10.5% cf. L-NP 2.5% - an 8% points advantage for the ALP.

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8981-federal-voting-election-summary-may-20-2022-202205200633

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Some further forecasts/commentary
Tonights Newspoll still to come.

“Rolling National Poll Roundup: 2022 Final Days
2PP Aggregate: 53.5 to Labor (-0.6 since last week) (not a prediction)
Cross-poll average of polls released in last week: 53.0 to Labor
(Weighted for time only, no house effects or quality weightings)
If the normal range of polling to result relationships applies, Labor remains very likely to win, probably outright
Historically, Labor has underperformed when it has leads in final week polling”

https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/05/rolling-national-poll-roundup-2022.html

“A model of the upcoming 2022 Australian federal election using various inputs such as voting intention polls, leader approval polling, economic data and historical performance to model the election. We then run 100,000 simulations to forecast the election.”

https://armariuminterreta.com/projects/2022-australian-federal-election-forecast/
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