I'm as bullish on AVR/AMEUF as anyone, it's just about equal my largest position, but I think we're way too early to think about anything close to a $15 billion buyout. Remember, we are still relatively early clinical-stage. We need a lot more data. I've invested in biotech long enough to not definitively count my clinical trial results before they hatch.
I've updated my calculations for a current reasonable buyout price and with an expected global TAVR market size of $6 billion (all dollar amounts USD) in 2025 and an expected CAGR of 18%, if DurAVR takes 5% market share in 2025, then a 10% share in 2026, 20% in 2027 and 30% for the next 4 years...that's a total projected revenue of $18 billion over 7 years. With a discount of 75% because the DurAVR is still clinical stage, that gives a total revenue projection of $13.5 billion for 7 years for a company buying out Anteris. What should be the asking price for the chance at that kind of revenue? $2.5 billion ($3.5 AUD)? $3.5 billion ($4.9 AUD)? Something around there may be a starting price in negotiations at some point. A price of $2.5 billion USD would be a share price of around $150 USD or $211 AUD with the current amount of fully diluted shares.
Obviously we are a ways from that and it seems unrealistic for a company to float a serious buyout offer at 12.4x the current share price. That would be the mother of all arbitrage opportunities. lol. Maybe there will be a bidding war behind the scenes, who knows, that drives the price up but IMO we still have a lot to prove before we can expect buyout offers in the multibillions. I'm confident we'll get to that valuation one way or another eventually, but more data, with a lack of serious adverse events, is very likely what matters above all else.
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