Actually the intrinsic value of bisantrene is around $8/share by my DD. Based on its historical usage.
Based on a perfect scenario with FTO (and Bisantrene by extension) offering treatment for Melanoma, Renal Cell Carinoma, EM-AML, Breast Cancer and Cardioprotective purposes, then the potential revenue stream of all of these is mind bendingly huge.
The fair price value is exceeding $100/share in such a scenario.
One has to understand to some extent the mechanism of FTO, it's broad implications and novel treatment to address it.
However, do I think such a price is likely? Probably not.
Immunomedics was acquired for Trudolvy for $21B or $90ish per share OTH and its PD-1 inhibitor has some guardrails before it's usability and thus revenue profitability. It's revenue is less than Bisantrenes potential under similar guardrails.
Did Gilead overpay for Trudolvy? Probably. But something is only worth what some monkey is willing to pay a that time.
Do I think once Bisantrene and FTO is proven, Something better be discovered later I relation to FTO?
You bet, but that has a tendency to happen with anything and it's a positive for technological advancement to refine and improve previous successes, however the benefit is initial market capture, particularly in a space where a replication cannot be manufactured too quickly (we aren't dealing with vacuum cleaners here).
Ignoring share price,
What would you say FTO and the diseases it's associated with is worth in revenue, Dory?
The share price in between is largely a reflection of a bunch of monkeys' emotions in that moment, macroeconomics and market "sector flavour of the month" manipulation.
Bisantrene, to date, has yet to show me it doesn't have novel potential, the safety and historical use even when used incorrectly derisks things significantly.
Trials still going positively, its when i see reformulation news away from CVLs that I will get more excited.
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