Share Price Catalysts, page-22

I'll argue that the situation now is very different to GFC and helps explain why GMA trading at steep discount based on fundamental metrics. The key differences I think are:
1) Loss of parent support from Genworth US. Previously market looked on Genworth US support favourably as could inject liquidity if capital ran low. Insurers competitiveness is also related their capital position so loss of Genworth US was viewed poorly. I disagreed with market on this fwiw.

2) Housing outlook is worse than GFC. Lending standards in my view are lower than what they were. The Financial Services Royal Commission was supposed to fix.that but ultimately that rec wasn't implemented. The RBA have a long way to go before normalising monetary policy and have started raising, very different to post GDC environment
3) Market is generally apathetic to insurance sector in general.
4) Management and board direction is a worry. It is hard to know how long GMA can compete with QBE. It may be better for shareholders to go into runoff at some point if QBE undercut GMA, but it's more likely Management and board will want to keep going rather than shrink. This relates to point 1. I've also found recent appointments perplexing, no need for GMA to be thinking about growth and what need is there for innovation for a simple product like LMI?
5) Market wants to see the money so to speak. There are a lot of SMSF just looking for franking credits, GMA need to pay out more before share price rerates.

I'm long GMA fwiw