Nice write up today in the SMH.
IMO key questions to consider are:
1: What is an endorsement from Joe Biden worth?Bubs has already been in discussion with top 50 big retailers in the US.
It is interesting to think about what will be the indirect result of Biden's tweet. Will Bubs now capitalise further and see a huge influx of orders from its existing US relationships with Amazon, Walmart, Thrive, Ralphs etc as well as new retailers coming onboard due to the formula shortage crisis?
Biden - "We're doing everything in our power to get more formula on shelves as soon as possible."
2: What is approval from the FDA worth?
Bubs benefited from their existing relationship with the FDA compared to A2M etc. We know the process of approval is tedious and stringent and given Abbott's recent failure to comply with regulation - how much harder will it now be for companies to get approval by the FDA for infant formula?
Why haven't any other foreign companies already been approved if the US is in absolute crisis right now and babies are not being fed?
Companies Receiving Enforcement Discretion for Regular Infant Formula:
- Kendal Nutricare Ltd.
- Bubs Australia
https://www.fda.gov/food/infant-formula-guidance-documents-regulatory-information/enforcement-discretion-manufacturers-increase-infant-formula-supplies
Bubs has first-mover advantage as a foreign exporter to the US market which is estimated to be worth $4B.
The formula market is currently controlled by 90% US manufacturers.
FDA - "The guidance will be in effect until November 14, 2022, and we will evaluate whether any extension is necessary."
I never thought I would be interested in buying shares in a company that makes baby formula but after some research and learning the extent of America's infant formula crisis the tailwinds right now for both short term and long term growth are just obvious.
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