By the time 2013 rolls around at current expected rates of growth demand (from south east asia alone) should have pushed through 100,000 t per annum. From the information I have read that would be realistic and posibly slightly conservative.
If at the same time the megatons for megawatts deal concludes and the equivalent of a further 10,000 t of supply is effectively removed - all else being constant - the gap between demand and supply will have increased by over a further 30,000 t.
The unknown on the supply side is: - precise scope for increases in supply through new mines and expanded capacity;
- ability of secondary sources to continue to bridge the gap (civil stock piles, re-cycled uranium, re-enrichment of depleted uranium);
- technology advances for more efficent use of U3O8.
Obviously very hard to predict precisely when and to what extent, a supply side squeeze will materialise to make for a lift on the price of U3O8 but both the IAEA and WNA both predict supply side issues.
That being the case securing off-take agreements for BMN should not be an issue.
BMN Price at posting:
80.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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