mondayitis, page-74

Not much point arguing the facts kenneth - look at the charts. Bet you can't find too many industrials that put in a bottom before November/December 2008 as copper, gold, oil, and the CRB all did.

But a couple of exchanges did put in a bottom a couple of week earlier - Shanghai and Hong Kong, and commods followed very soon after. So now we should be paying pay close attention to what's going on in those countries via-a-vis liquidity and central bank policies as they drive these markets. Commodity prices these days have a much reduced correlation with employment and industrial output as they are also widely held financial assets with prices driven by sentiment and liquidity. Therefore you can regard them as leading, rather than trailing, economic indicators - as they are in your theory.