It is just the scale of probability, at which point each person needs to do their own analysis.
If you watch the Greenland speech that MJ made, it is clear that the equity side is a sticky part and that the "window is open" but might close.
As I have previous stated, MJ has a corporate finance background. His objective, along with Bacchus, is to solve the equity side of the equation to avoid the "worst case". Assuming that people are correct, and a Glencore want the project, they wont do anything as they can wait for the worst case (having already got access to the material via off take).
The speculation is on what are MJs / Bacchus options by October (theoretical decision by EXIM). What we know is that EXIM wont happen unless you have an equity component. MJ does not come across as a guy who wants to run a mine in Greenland. Therefore, you basically have 4 possible outcomes (in my opinion)
1. You secure equity % which pushes EXIM over the line. 2. You sell the whole project 3. You refloat IBG on the LSE as a new company to raise the funds to continue the project 4. "Worst case"
Bacchus wants (1, 2, 3) to get paid, so any of these will secure a small to large premium.
October is sort of critical, because if they are unable to sort out the EXIM they start to run out of cash and lose another construction window in Greenland.
IBG Price at posting:
2.8¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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