Agreed, and Ferrera has fallen off the rails since December so his whole year plan might be too.
However the average year scenario etc., allows for weakness into that timeframe and then up into April/May before a sharp drop.
We all know the "sell in May and go away" theme.
As well we have a regular 30 month low cycle since 1987 at least that has failed just once or twice I think that says April/May 2010 either terminates a long decline (not likely) or is a sharp but short decline.
30 month is 2*65 weeks of course.
The 30 month cycle below says 1995 a bit iffy and 2007 an inversion (not keen on inversions as it is a bit of a cop out).
Charts courtesy of my alter ego Jubilation T Cornpone. When things aren't going well I "retreat" too. He is one of my heros, lol.
JUBILATION T. CORNPONE Lil' Abner : The Musical (1956) (Gene De Paul / Johnny Mercer) Stubby Kaye - 1956
When we fought the Yankees and annihilation was near, Who was there to lead the charge that took us safe to the rear? Why it was Jubilation T. Cornpone; Old "Toot your own horn - pone." Jubilation T. Cornpone, a man who knew no fear!
When we almost had 'em but the issue still was in doubt, Who suggested the retreat that turned it into a rout? Why it was Jubilation T. Cornpone; Old "Tattered and torn - pone." Jubilation T. Cornpone, he kept us hidin' out!
With our ammunition gone and faced with utter defeat, Who was it that burned the crops and left us nothing to eat? Why it was Jubilation T. Cornpone; Old "September Morn - pone." Jubilation T. Cornpone, the pants blown off his seat!
HURRAY!
When it seemed like our brave boys would keep on fighting for months, Who took pity on them and ca-pit-u-lated at once? Why it was Jubilation T. Cornpone; Unshaven and shorn - pone. Jubilation T. Cornpone, he weren't nobody's dunce!
Who went re-con-noiter-ing to flank the enemy's rear, Circled through the piney woods, and disappeared for a year? Why it was Jubilation T. Cornpone; Old "Treat 'em with scorn - pone." Jubilation T. Cornpone, the missing mountaineer!
Who became so famous with a reputation so great, That he ran for president and didn't carry a state? Why it was Jubilation T. Cornpone; Old "Wouldn't be sworn - pone." Jubilation T. Cornpone, he made the country wait!
Stonewall Jackson got his name by standing firm in the fray. Who was known to all his men as good ol' "Paper Mache?" Why it was Jubilation T. Cornpone;
*****
Jubilation T. Cornpone, he really saved the day!
REPRISE ( FINALE ):
Though he's gone to his reward, his mighty torch is still lit. First in war. First in peace. First to holler, "I quit!" Jubilation T. Cornpone;
*****
Jubilation T. Cornpone, he really saved the day!
MOVIE VERSES:
History says that General Grant was pretty good with a jug, Who went drink for drink with him and wound up under the rug? Why it was Jubilation T. Cornpone; Passed out until morn - pone. Jubilation T. Cornpone, his whiskers in his mug!
Hearing that a Northern spy had come to town for the night, Who gained entrance to her room and lost the glorious fight? Why it was Jubilation T. Cornpone; Old "Weary and worn - pone." Jubilation T. Cornpone, he fought all through the night!
There at Appomatox Lee and Grant were present, of course. As Lee swept a tear away, who swept the back of his horse? Why it was Jubilation T. Cornpone;
(20min delay)