Hi jnr trader,
I think that we will have problems with real estate here, not to the extremes of Dr keen, but RE prices are now simply unafordable to most starting out, this is mainly due IMO to the tax favoured structure of investment property. Negative gearing should be unwound, so that instead of being able to claim gearing losses against normal income, these losses should be quarantined, and only offset against RE/investment income or capital gains.
Or alternately, get rid of the CGT 50% rule, but to have negative gearing and the CGT 50% rule both operating at the same time, just gives property investors too many advantages over home buyers.
Another problem we have here is the centralization of populations, in the states where property is more affordable there are many smaller cities spread out all over the country, i know Aust is more barren, but we should be really encouraging more people to live outside of the major cities and more into places like Goulbourn, Albury and like size towns, we cant just keep stuffing people into Sydney melbourne and Brisbane.
I think you underestimate the US's problems, the trill you were refering to is not interest, but bond repayments, and its two trill from memory plus a budget deficet of nearly another two trill, so they have to find 4 trill within the next 12months, or someone to finance this 4 trill, and thats my point Enoch, the dollars are simply not available of borrow, the Chinese want out, but are not trying to spook the cattle, they are getting out of US$ and into anything else they can, as quitely as they can, before the cattle wake up, then it will turn into a stampede.
I said in another thread about the US 'creating' somewhere between 10 and 20 trillion dollars, I firmly believe that this will happen, whether it is done stealthly, and allow the Chinese to sneak out, or what I think might happen, is to do this more openly, and the Chinese (and others) will get trampled to death, in the race to exit the USDollar.
This is happening now IMO and will gather momentum, as bondholders wake up to what is happening
As it is now, the 4 trill that is required within the next 12months, is not there to borrow, unless those carribean banks are willing to up the ante, where are the carribean dollars coming from, who knows, were they simply 'created' and used to purchase the US's debt by the US themselves.
Like the 800billion from last year, that appeared to come from a rounding account.
The US debt is now too great to be able to use "fiscally resposible" or honest methods, to repay the debts, the will to do this the hard way is not there either. The only (and easier for now) way out now is to inflate the debt away.
When the sheeple realise this it is game over, the US will have civil unrest, the US dollar will collapse, gold and silver will be sought after, and may be even part of the new currency solution, who knows.
But for now watch what Ben does, not what he says.
cheers grant
the above is opinion only and written without prejudice
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