Tiresias: What it's really all about

"What's that all about Alfie?"

Hal David

My friends,

Tiresias often ponders the meaning of the public stock market pricing of stocks. Tiresias understands that his friends are well educated students in the vagaries of the instantaneous “pricing” of shares. What does the last “price” mean? It signifies something, but exactly what? Is the price a real thing? Well, the last price is just that, the last price, somebody sold, and somebody bought a number of shares before the close of the market. To attribute anything more to that price is to attribute an omniscience and omnipotence to those two individuals, which Tiresias is certain they do not have. Does that last price of the transaction mean anything more than one person was selling, and the buyer snapped them up in what he/she thought was a bargain. Does that transaction price mean that the price on Monday should start where the price on Friday? But of course not. Tiresias of course recognises that human thoughts and memory have certain inertia, and the last transaction price does have a persisting effect on the next transaction price. Should it? Well, of course, human beings being what they are, and given the nature of human memory, will tend to anchor to the last price. Does this last price, on late a Friday, in the midst of a world in turmoil, bear a relationship to the state of the company at that moment? And what is that relationship, the perception by a buyer and seller, on this last Friday, to the situation and the prospects of Optiscan. Up until the GFC, the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) was very much in the vogue. It has held sway from the 1960s, to the GFC, and like all things in human experience, there is an inertia, and a hangover and some people still cling to it. This idea, that the price does reflect all the (public) information about the company, and that the price is correct at every point, is clearly discredited and ridiculous. Tiresias does not believe in EMH and dismisses the idea that the last price reflects anything except that one person sold some shares and another bought some on Friday. Tiresias recognises that this may be regarded as provocative in some quarters.

Tiresias, as his friends know, is interested in the future. But to try to understand the future one must also understand the past. Tiresias has made a study of the many forms of forecasting. He has studied ancient Chaldean astrology, pre- Chaldean Archeoastronomy, Shamanistic transcendent states of mind, the Pythias, the Sybils, and the rest, all the way up to the latest massive data theories and their claims to be able to predict the future. Tiresias sees all of this. But what Tiresias sees most clearly is what Optiscan is really all about. It is not about the last share sale last Friday, which will be forgotten completely by next Friday. Optiscan is about a new revolutionary technology for cancer diagnosis and treatment, which enables real-time in vivo digital histopathology, through 3-dimensional Confocal Laser Endomicroscopy. Tiresias sees the replacement frozen section biopsy in surgery. Tiresias also sees the feasibility of margin definition and detection of residual cancer cells in brain tumours and breast cancer surgery. Tiresias sees the real digitization of pathology. Tiresias sees advancement to instant in-vivo histological diagnosis with artificial intelligence, in the clinic and in the operating theatre. Tiresias sees real-time opinion on histological diagnosis on surgery in any part of the world, by an expert in the field located anywhere in the world. Teresa sees that the new CEO/managing director is proactive, and sees what Tiresias sees, and a lot more in addition. It is clear to Tiresias that there is a plan, a strategy, to his actions. He is obvious eminently qualified in the field, and finally, for the first time in Optiscan’s history, can articulate the potential. Though he has been the CEO for just 4 to 5 months, he has already presented at the American Academy of Oral Medicine (AAOM) in Memphis, been selected visiting speaker in Saudi Arabia presenting on oral medicine and has spoken in Darwin to an oral hygiene conference (Tiresias reminds his friends of the potential scale of just this field). Tiresias has no doubt, given the MD’s obvious energy, that our peripatetic MD will leave no stone unturned in promoting rapidly the clinical introduction of the oral instrument. We know that the FDA application is imminent, and clearly the market is being built in the oral medicine field ready for sales, if there are already not pre-sales, ready for the moment the FDA approval occurs. That's the oral medicine. That’s the first cab off the rank. The two other imminent developments are of course the ongoing slow, all to slow grind, in neurosurgery, under the auspices of the very slow Teutonic Carl Zeiss. This indeed has been a slow process, slower than Tiresias had expected. Tiresias has always understood that malignant brain tumour surgery the most difficult area, but the slowness of a conservative, 170-year-old, Teutonic industrial giant, Carl Zeiss, is, dare he say, a touch too slow and a touch disappointing. Tiresias will, this time, resist hurling any further bureaucratic insults towards Carl Zeiss. Tiresias would also remind his friends the other simultaneous and imminent application, breast cancer surgery. There has been a pilot study in Melbourne. We have as yet not heard the results, or if indeed it is complete. Through his medical grapevine, Tiresias, well, he better not say. Suffice it to say, Tiresias has no doubt as to the role and the size of this market for Optiscan in cancer margin and cancer cell screening in breast cancer surgery. Finally, the big sleeper. The one that it is really exciting. Gastroenterology. This has been fully developed but was unfortunately abandoned through a combination of circumstances, financial constraints, poor management, and world financial circumstances. Pentax, which had bought into Optiscan and paid over $AUD20million to develop GI endomicroscopy, to leapfrog its way to the top of the GI endoscope sales, collapsed as a result of the GFC, and other completely unrelated financial dealings, was taken over by Hoya, who, also as a consequence of the GFC, cancelled all research and development, and anything the was not cashflow positive at that time. This was when Optiscan’s share price was 40 to 50 cents. In Tiresias’s view, in GI, the work has been done, all the scientific papers are published, and the project is ready to go. Tiresias is certain that the new management would understands this.

Friday’s “price” notwithstanding, Tiresias is remains tranquil. Tiresias sees what it’s all about.