Let's get this straight. There's really two different problems occuring right now. The first is the rising interest rates and increasing inflation with no end in sight. This is a similar problem to what happened post WWII. In fact in 1947 inflation reached 20%.
Equities have been retreating because of an expected blow out in interest rates by the Fed this week with an aim to taming inflation. The risk of course is that pushing rates too hard will force a recession. In my opinion this is just a matter of when not if.
With that being said, there's enough risks from the border market to cause one to reconsider their investments regardless of the underlying assets value. As we know equities are generally overpriced or underpriced. I'm expecting a lot of the overpriced equities to become underpriced over time presenting buying opportunities.
The second issue here is the lack of execution. Part of building a successful business is being able to sell the vision. I think management nailed selling the vision and were able to raise $50m. Selling the vision is only the start. You then need to be able to execute on the vision. This is where management have not excelled. They've been slow going and communication has dried up. This is a sign of poor leadership. I'm happy to make that call now. I was not happy to make the call 6 months ago because business takes time to develop and an operation less than 12 months old being deemed a failure is very premature.
So what has changed in my view? The opportunity has now ended. The market is no longer favourable to businesses that aren't making a profit. Even businesses making a profit are judged more harshly now so an unprofitable startup does not feel like the best place for my cash to be.
You can't time the market. Management may eventually get the recipe right however the risk of holding and waiting for this to occur is too great in my opinion. IOU does seem to have an issue with execution however this is a problem that management could resolve. The market pull back however is a macro economic factor and one that management can't do anything about.
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