Yes, we have officially entered a bear market, the S&P is down 22% year-to-date and the nasdaq is down a lot more than that.
But I think that a lot of the bad news, the fact that the federal reserve is going to raise interest rates up to 3% that we are going to have a recession, all that bad news has already been price into the markets. In other words the market already expects all this shit to happen. So if the shit doesn’t happen or the shits happens less than feared, then we are gonna go to the bottom and we’re going to have the next really really strong bull market rally.
Now exactly when is gonna happen, I don’t know I can’t predict for certain. It could be the second half of the year which is still possible or maybe next year.
But in a very short term, NEXT 1-3 DAYS I DO EXPECT ANOTHER BOUNCE. Because the markets are very very OVERSOLD.
If you look at the fear and greed index, we are at extreme fear right now
and if you take a look at the price action on S&P 500 (below chart) we have had 4 consecutive down days of more than one percent. THAT IS PRETTY RARE dropping more than 1% for four days in a row,
This has only happened 9 times in the last 60 years and you can see that (see below chart) it happened in 1962 twice, 1987 and 2002 twice, 2008, 2009, 2015, 2018, and right now right here 2022. The only one that was worse than four consecutive down days was 2008 that was a financial crisis when the banks almost went bankrupt because all their assets were toxic worthless. We're not in that situation right now don’t worry, in fact banks are very strong right now, they are well capitalised. So at that time there was 7 straight days of one percent decline, that was very bad. But like I said we are not there in terms of economic systemic risk.
So what happen when we had four days of one percent decline? You can see in 100% OF THE TIME, 12 months later, market was up significantly as you can see in the chart- 12% 29% 22% 23% 32% 6% 59% 16% 37%, so you can see average is 26.7%.
So in other words, things look really bad right now but it’s so bad IT IS GOOD. Its like one of my girlfriend said in the past, Kevin you are so bad.......you’re good. That is so bad that's good right!!!
If you buy great companies stocks right now (like RNU), company that is fully cash up, has world class project, in number 1 jurisdiction, yeah it looks scary because it keeps going down but if you buy it right now like me, I have been buying yesterday and today as well (I bought at 14c), 6-12 months later from now, there’s a very high chance in fact historically 100% chance you are going to be happy it’s gonna be a lot higher in 12 months than what it is today. Remember what goes down will always go up provided they are a good company
(20min delay)