Valuation of Lark and stock-holdings, page-47

Finally got around to this work, using my own assumptions as no other input / requests.

Currently Lark is possibly generating its NSR (forecast to be circa $240 for the year), with the following mix of sales, and NSR contributions;
assumes Domestic Wholesale margins at 40% (66.67% mark-up) (I.e Dan Murphs and Online Whisky sellers / Clubs etc).. This assumes sales (by volume) is 50:50 DTC vs Domestic Wholesale...

Note, margins re state EX GST.




Then, I shift to 50% Export, 25% DTC and 25% Domestic Wholesale to gauge where we might be in say 2024 (this assumes no change in current pricing). Export margin is 50% (i.e. 100% markup). Noting no GST or Excise on exported alcohol, that's why Export NSR hold up well despite margin shift).




In Summary, NSR looks to be very robust despite the margin pressure from shift to Export sales.

Lark Margin is circa 65% (so $156 margin on NSR at say $240) Suggest COGS of $84 per litre...

Increasing export sales sees Margin shift down to $116 on $200 (i.e. 58%) in the export scenario above...

Applying this to a Whisky bank forecast below; Note the GP$ valuation per share of the Whisky bank... Currently trading at 50% of a forecast 2024 whisky bank GP$ valuation...

DYOR, this is just my take on the state of LRK.