Ann: New Mechanism By Which PAT-DX1 May Reduce Cancer Metastasis, page-60

First 60 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Curlyjoh

1,748 Posts.

222

21/06/22

14:55

Post #: 62115313
Share

Originally posted by JonesingPanda ↑

"DX1 and DX3 have all the hallmarks of a potential buyout - all these animal studies showing multiple novel characteristics of the DX family + the news of an imminent phase I trial will in my opinion definitely position Patrys well for a pre-clinical buyout."

My thoughts are if the company announces their launch of phase 1 trials then there won't be a buyout until the results of that trial come through. Best case for investors is a big pharma will put an offer on the table that is dependent on the results, with an initial immediate payment that may supplement phase 1 costs.

Otherwise if Patrys already has enough money to get through phase 1 trials, they're better off getting the safety data before allowing a buyout in say a years time. If they're months from starting phase 1, looking at the SP now you have to ask how much the top holders have to gain from a buyout now vs in a years time after they have the human dataset to prove safety and efficacy, creating a much higher-value product.

If a big pharma came to the table now, in preclinical, they could offer 5c/share or $100m for the company, a 100% premium on today's price. Seems like a good offer on paper, especially for a product that has no clinical validation in humans. Investors double their money as of today. Would they be willing to offer 10c/share ($200m), a 300% increase? Other side of the coin is what the minimum value the major shareholders are looking to get out of their investment, because they'll control the vote. Why would they accept a $200m buyout when they could wait 12 months and with supporting clinical evidence expect say 25c/share ($500m), a 900% increase.

These are all obviously hypothetical numbers I've picked out of the air and is in no way investment advice. I believe the thought process to be relatively logical though. And I agree with you that Patrys is well positioned for a buyout, My opinion is that I'd be surprised if it happens before the phase 1 trial when they're also well positioned to run the trial first. Our opinions don't have to match, I appreciate the discussion either way.

Expand

I direct your attention to:

Chairman’s Address and CEO Presentation at Annual General Meeting 5/11/2021

Page 16/23

Recent deals for antibody and DNA Damage Repair drugs

Just in case you haven't already read it. I just don't see Campbell negotiating for M$250. He didn't do the fund raiser for nothing.

PAB Price at posting: 2.2¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
5 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

What's causing the cost-of-living crisis, and how to navigate it

TLG

Talga Group wins key permit for flagship graphite mine in Sweden

Week 42 Wrap: HotCopper's top picks; new ASX 200 record; world yawns at war

NVU

Nanoveu surges 10% after benchmark testing for new AI chip begins

SNX

Sierra Nevada raises $2M for silver exploration at Blackhawk

M4M

Macro, Norden set up transport solutions initiative for West Pilbara

MKT

The ASX can overlook its Telecomm small-caps. Here’s one diversified brand with an international footprint

SWP

Swoop lobs $18M offer at microcap telecom Vonex – in which it holds 19.9%

MTH

Mithril's drilling in Mexico picks up silver at 997g/t, gold at 28g/t

IRX

InhaleRX snags $38.5M in funding from VC biotech funder Clendon