@smulv - I guess news will come when it's available, but now with all those tenements things are just being put into order.
I can wait - and am focused on world events, not just markets. We do indeed live in interesting times.
Big Q. Is the current short term strength in S&P500 and S&P-ASX200 a turning point into the next Green/EV/Net Zero bull run, or just a Dead Cat Bounce/Bear Market Rally?
Personally I think the former - but I have been outspoken about that for quite a while. Reason is that current inflation, while serious for so many people with cost of living issues, is just the working out of the covid stimulus, and with other issues like reemployment after covid looming too. Importantly, IMO, it is not structural as were the issues which led to the GFC, caused by Big Bank bad behaviour.
I watch the VIX, the so called Fear Index on US and OZ markets. I think we will see lower highs generated, and if we also get lower lows I will be loosing my dry powder.
The VIX is an interesting indicator, it is calculated in real time by looking at PUT options on the index concerned. PUT options are commonly written to insure against a fall in a participant's position, so it is a forward looking defensive position.
When the market is sailing smoothly (does it ever) the VIX is low - meaning low fear, but when it is falling, or suspected to fall further more PUTs are written and VIX goes up.
Hence my interest in lower highs, and lower lows. I hope we are currently seeing that - with the next correction just the first minor one in the coming run to the upside.
Of course you must not act on my opinion, I am only an anonymous HC poster. So DYOR.
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