Dave you keep talking about inflation and recession but never address the question to what in your research will be the new driver behind inflation from this point to justify higher rates? We know how and what got it to this point, now what sustains it? There is nothing pointing to more inflation. As mentioned eurodollar futures in backwardation and as of last night PMI's pummeled to same level as May 2020. Container rates, oil, copper all heading lower. A rising US dollar with 8.5% inflation is also a massive red flag. By all accounts rates will be at zero before +2%.
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